ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

TodayTomorrow
Snapshot 1:25 AM ET · Jul 2 · manual refresh only
Pick date:Gotodaytomorrow
Date: 2026-07-02 · 9 games · primary model marked with *
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
12:36 PM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) · Jared Jones · Open — / Curr +109 (DraftKings)
Philadelphia Phillies (home) · Alan Rangel · Open — / Curr -132 (DraftKings)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Jared Jones (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Philadelphia Phillies (home) — / -132 -112 -138 +6c
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
02:11 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds (away) · Chase Burns · Open — / Curr +163 (DraftKings)
Milwaukee Brewers (home) · Jacob Misiorowski · Open — / Curr -200 (DraftKings)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — Cincinnati Reds (away) — / +163 -105 -113 +76c
ml_lgbm — Cincinnati Reds (away) — / +163 +117 +121 +42c
ml_xgb — Cincinnati Reds (away) — / +163 +112 +107 +56c
ml_catboost — Cincinnati Reds (away) — / +163 +121 +109 +54c
ml_logit_blended — Cincinnati Reds (away) — / +163 +105 -116 +79c
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
03:11 PM ET
Miami Marlins (away) · Ryan Gusto · Open — / Curr —
Colorado Rockies (home) · Michael Lorenzen · Open — / Curr —
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — Miami Marlins (away) — / — -110 -114 —
ml_lgbm — Miami Marlins (away) — / — +110 -108 —
ml_xgb — Colorado Rockies (home) — / — -111 -107 —
ml_catboost — Colorado Rockies (home) — / — -108 -106 —
ml_logit_blended — Miami Marlins (away) — / — -149 -178 —
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
06:41 PM ET
Chicago White Sox (away) · Davis Martin · Open — / Curr -122 (DraftKings)
Cleveland Guardians (home) · Slade Cecconi · Open — / Curr +102 (DraftKings)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — Cleveland Guardians (home) — / +102 -106 -106 +8c
ml_lgbm — Cleveland Guardians (home) — / +102 -105 +108 -6c
ml_xgb — Cleveland Guardians (home) — / +102 -113 -107 +9c
ml_catboost — Cleveland Guardians (home) — / +102 -105 -100 +2c
ml_logit_blended — Cleveland Guardians (home) — / +102 -115 -138 +40c
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
07:16 PM ET
St. Louis Cardinals (away) · Dustin May · Open — / Curr —
Atlanta Braves (home) · Hurston Waldrep · Open — / Curr —
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — St. Louis Cardinals (away) — / — +102 -102 —
ml_lgbm — St. Louis Cardinals (away) — / — +110 -108 —
ml_xgb — Atlanta Braves (home) — / — -113 -107 —
ml_catboost — St. Louis Cardinals (away) — / — -103 -123 —
ml_logit_blended — St. Louis Cardinals (away) — / — -109 -116 —
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
07:41 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays (away) · Ian Seymour · Open — / Curr —
Kansas City Royals (home) · Stephen Kolek · Open — / Curr —
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — Tampa Bay Rays (away) — / — -116 -180 —
ml_lgbm — Tampa Bay Rays (away) — / — -104 -108 —
ml_xgb — Kansas City Royals (home) — / — -112 -107 —
ml_catboost — Tampa Bay Rays (away) — / — -108 -123 —
ml_logit_blended — Tampa Bay Rays (away) — / — -109 -116 —
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
08:06 PM ET
Detroit Tigers (away) · Framber Valdez · Open — / Curr +109 (DraftKings)
Texas Rangers (home) · Nathan Eovaldi · Open — / Curr -132 (DraftKings)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — Detroit Tigers (away) — / +109 +104 +106 +3c
ml_lgbm — Texas Rangers (home) — / -132 -128 -121 -10c
ml_xgb — Detroit Tigers (away) — / +109 +113 +107 +2c
ml_catboost — Detroit Tigers (away) — / +109 +142 +109 0c
ml_logit_blended — Texas Rangers (home) — / -132 -126 -138 +6c
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
09:41 PM ET
Los Angeles Angels (away) · Walbert Ureña · Open — / Curr +169 (DraftKings)
Seattle Mariners (home) · Bryce Miller · Open — / Curr -208 (DraftKings)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Walbert Ureña (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Los Angeles Angels (away) — / +169 +109 +109 +60c
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
10:11 PM ET
San Diego Padres (away) · Randy Vásquez · Open — / Curr —
Los Angeles Dodgers (home) · Roki Sasaki · Open — / Curr —
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — San Diego Padres (away) — / — -101 -102 —
ml_lgbm — Los Angeles Dodgers (home) — / — -123 -121 —
ml_xgb — Los Angeles Dodgers (home) — / — -113 -107 —
ml_catboost — Los Angeles Dodgers (home) — / — -153 -109 —
ml_logit_blended — Los Angeles Dodgers (home) — / — -120 -138 —

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
12:36 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 10.0 (O -109 / U -105)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 9.58 10.0 UNDER -0.42
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
02:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.0 (O +106 / U -122)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.72 7.0 OVER +1.72
totals_xgb 10.08 7.0 OVER +3.08
totals_ridge 8.72 7.0 OVER +1.72
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
03:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 11.16 — — —
totals_xgb 12.59 — — —
totals_ridge 10.69 — — —
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
06:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -114 / U -101)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.24 8.5 OVER +0.74
totals_xgb 10.49 8.5 OVER +1.99
totals_ridge 8.43 8.5 UNDER -0.07
St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
07:16 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.59 — — —
totals_xgb 9.03 — — —
totals_ridge 8.79 — — —
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
07:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.49 — — —
totals_xgb 10.10 — — —
totals_ridge 8.90 — — —
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
08:06 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -112 / U -102)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.75 7.5 OVER +1.25
totals_xgb 9.71 7.5 OVER +2.21
totals_ridge 8.36 7.5 OVER +0.86
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
09:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -104 / U -110)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 7.77 7.5 OVER +0.27
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
10:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -116 / U +101)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.11 8.5 OVER +0.61
totals_xgb 10.22 8.5 OVER +1.72
totals_ridge 9.13 8.5 OVER +0.63

CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d)

Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.

ModelnCLV (cents)±SEM
ml_logit_baseline272+0.06±0.13
ml_lgbm272+0.06±0.13
ml_xgb272-0.05±0.13
ml_catboost272-0.08±0.13
ml_logit_blended382+0.05±0.11
ml_lgbm_walkforward_v170+0.63±0.25
ml_logit_all_l30d374+0.11±0.11
ml_lr3292+0.09±0.12
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.