ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

TodayTomorrow
Snapshot 7:23 PM ET · Jun 2 · manual refresh only
Pick date:Gotodaytomorrow
Date: 2026-06-02 · 15 games · primary model marked with *
Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays
06:40 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Detroit Tigers (away) · Jack Flaherty · Open +122 / Curr +128 (Pinnacle)
Tampa Bay Rays (home) · Steven Matz · Open -135 / Curr -139 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 5-0 (Top 3rd) Detroit Tigers (away) +122 / +128 -103 -102 +24c
ml_lgbm 5-0 (Top 3rd) Detroit Tigers (away) +122 / +128 -111 -108 +30c
ml_xgb 5-0 (Top 3rd) Detroit Tigers (away) +122 / +128 +120 +104 +18c
ml_catboost 5-0 (Top 3rd) Detroit Tigers (away) +122 / +128 +109 -103 +25c
ml_logit_blended 0-5 (Top 3rd) Tampa Bay Rays (home) -135 / -139 -119 -129 -6c
San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies
06:40 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
San Diego Padres (away) · Randy Vásquez · Open +115 / Curr +131 (Pinnacle)
Philadelphia Phillies (home) · Aaron Nola · Open -127 / Curr -143 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-0 (Top 3rd) San Diego Padres (away) +115 / +131 +129 -102 +17c
ml_lgbm 0-0 (Top 3rd) San Diego Padres (away) +115 / +131 -101 -108 +23c
ml_xgb 0-0 (Top 3rd) San Diego Padres (away) +115 / +131 +108 -132 +47c
ml_catboost 0-0 (Top 3rd) San Diego Padres (away) +115 / +131 +132 -103 +18c
ml_logit_blended 0-0 (Top 3rd) Philadelphia Phillies (home) -127 / -143 -155 -152 +25c
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
06:45 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Miami Marlins (away) · Lake Bachar · Open -101 / Curr +103 (Pinnacle)
Washington Nationals (home) · Richard Lovelady · Open -109 / Curr -112 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-0 (Bottom 2nd) Miami Marlins (away) -101 / +103 -105 -127 +26c
ml_lgbm 0-0 (Bottom 2nd) Miami Marlins (away) -101 / +103 +114 -100 -1c
ml_xgb 0-0 (Bottom 2nd) Miami Marlins (away) -101 / +103 +122 +104 -5c
ml_catboost 0-0 (Bottom 2nd) Miami Marlins (away) -101 / +103 +137 -103 +2c
ml_logit_blended 0-0 (Bottom 2nd) Washington Nationals (home) -109 / -112 -151 -152 +43c
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
06:45 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Baltimore Orioles (away) · Shane Baz · Open +116 / Curr +121 (Pinnacle)
Boston Red Sox (home) · Connelly Early · Open -128 / Curr -132 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-1 (Bottom 2nd) Baltimore Orioles (away) +116 / +121 +135 -102 +18c
ml_lgbm 1-1 (Bottom 2nd) Baltimore Orioles (away) +116 / +121 -101 -108 +24c
ml_xgb 1-1 (Bottom 2nd) Baltimore Orioles (away) +116 / +121 +123 +104 +12c
ml_catboost 1-1 (Bottom 2nd) Baltimore Orioles (away) +116 / +121 +141 -103 +19c
ml_logit_blended 1-1 (Bottom 2nd) Boston Red Sox (home) -128 / -132 -117 -129 +1c
Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees
07:05 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Cleveland Guardians (away) · Joey Cantillo · Open +185 / Curr +167 (Pinnacle)
New York Yankees (home) · Cam Schlittler · Open -208 / Curr -182 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-0 (End 1st) Cleveland Guardians (away) +185 / +167 +114 -102 +87c
ml_lgbm 0-0 (End 1st) Cleveland Guardians (away) +185 / +167 -101 -108 +93c
ml_xgb 0-0 (End 1st) Cleveland Guardians (away) +185 / +167 +150 +104 +81c
ml_catboost 0-0 (End 1st) Cleveland Guardians (away) +185 / +167 +185 +120 +65c
ml_logit_blended 0-0 (End 1st) Cleveland Guardians (away) +185 / +167 +156 +152 +33c
Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds
07:10 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Kansas City Royals (away) · Noah Cameron · Open +113 / Curr +113 (Pinnacle)
Cincinnati Reds (home) · Andrew Abbott · Open -125 / Curr -122 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-0 (End 1st) Kansas City Royals (away) +113 / +113 +118 -102 +15c
ml_lgbm 0-0 (End 1st) Kansas City Royals (away) +113 / +113 +114 -100 +13c
ml_xgb 0-0 (End 1st) Kansas City Royals (away) +113 / +113 +116 -104 +17c
ml_catboost 0-0 (End 1st) Kansas City Royals (away) +113 / +113 +124 -103 +16c
ml_logit_blended 0-0 (End 1st) Kansas City Royals (away) +113 / +113 +105 -112 +25c
Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves
07:15 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Toronto Blue Jays (away) · Kevin Gausman · Open +111 / Curr +103 (Pinnacle)
Atlanta Braves (home) · Bryce Elder · Open -123 / Curr -111 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-0 (Bottom 1st) Toronto Blue Jays (away) +111 / +103 -105 -127 +38c
ml_lgbm 0-0 (Bottom 1st) Atlanta Braves (home) -123 / -111 -153 -147 +24c
ml_xgb 0-0 (Bottom 1st) Toronto Blue Jays (away) +111 / +103 +138 +104 +7c
ml_catboost 0-0 (Bottom 1st) Toronto Blue Jays (away) +111 / +103 +118 -103 +14c
ml_logit_blended 0-0 (Bottom 1st) Atlanta Braves (home) -123 / -111 -116 -129 +6c
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
07:40 PM ET
Chicago White Sox (away) · Davis Martin · Open -116 / Curr -118 (Pinnacle)
Minnesota Twins (home) · Connor Prielipp · Open +105 / Curr +109 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Connor Prielipp (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Chicago White Sox (away) -116 / -118 -126 -188 +71c
San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers
07:40 PM ET
San Francisco Giants (away) · Trevor McDonald velo -1.14 · Open +162 / Curr +223 (Pinnacle)
Milwaukee Brewers (home) · Kyle Harrison · Open -182 / Curr -250 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — San Francisco Giants (away) +162 / +223 +126 -102 +64c
ml_lgbm — San Francisco Giants (away) +162 / +223 -101 -108 +70c
ml_xgb — San Francisco Giants (away) +162 / +223 +107 -132 +94c
ml_catboost — San Francisco Giants (away) +162 / +223 +133 -103 +65c
ml_logit_blended — San Francisco Giants (away) +162 / +223 +104 -112 +74c
Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals
07:45 PM ET
Texas Rangers (away) · Nathan Eovaldi · Open -108 / Curr -106 (Pinnacle)
St. Louis Cardinals (home) · Dustin May · Open -102 / Curr -102 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — St. Louis Cardinals (home) -102 / -102 +102 +102 -4c
ml_lgbm — Texas Rangers (away) -108 / -106 -101 -108 +0c
ml_xgb — Texas Rangers (away) -108 / -106 +116 -105 -2c
ml_catboost — Texas Rangers (away) -108 / -106 +113 -103 -4c
ml_logit_blended — Texas Rangers (away) -108 / -106 -116 -112 +4c
Athletics @ Chicago Cubs
08:05 PM ET
Athletics (away) · Gage Jump · Open +108 / Curr +114 (Pinnacle)
Chicago Cubs (home) · Jameson Taillon · Open -119 / Curr -123 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Gage Jump (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Athletics (away) +108 / +114 +107 -112 +20c
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros
08:10 PM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) · Bubba Chandler · Open +101 / Curr +105 (Pinnacle)
Houston Astros (home) · Mike Burrows · Open -111 / Curr -114 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +101 / +105 +119 -102 +3c
ml_lgbm — Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +101 / +105 -101 -108 +9c
ml_xgb — Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +101 / +105 +107 -132 +33c
ml_catboost — Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +101 / +105 +105 -114 +15c
ml_logit_blended — Houston Astros (home) -111 / -114 -125 -139 +28c
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels
09:38 PM ET
Colorado Rockies (away) · Tomoyuki Sugano · Open +138 / Curr +142 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Angels (home) · Grayson Rodriguez · Open -154 / Curr -154 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Grayson Rodriguez (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Colorado Rockies (away) +138 / +142 +118 +129 +9c
New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners
09:40 PM ET
New York Mets (away) · Open +131 / Curr +132 (Pinnacle)
Seattle Mariners (home) · Logan Gilbert · Open -145 / Curr -145 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — Seattle Mariners (home) -145 / -145 -175 -152 +7c
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
09:40 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers (away) · Eric Lauer · Open -118 / Curr -114 (Pinnacle)
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) · Michael Soroka · Open +106 / Curr +105 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — Arizona Diamondbacks (home) +106 / +105 -109 +102 +4c
ml_lgbm — Arizona Diamondbacks (home) +106 / +105 +101 +108 -2c
ml_xgb — Los Angeles Dodgers (away) -118 / -114 +106 -132 +14c
ml_catboost — Los Angeles Dodgers (away) -118 / -114 -100 -131 +14c
ml_logit_blended — Arizona Diamondbacks (home) +106 / +105 +100 +112 -6c

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays
06:40 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O +101 / U -116)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.55 8.5 OVER +0.05
totals_xgb 7.38 8.5 UNDER -1.12
totals_ridge 8.71 8.5 OVER +0.21
San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies
06:40 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -112 / U -102)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.02 8.0 OVER +1.02
totals_xgb 8.75 8.0 OVER +0.75
totals_ridge 9.10 8.0 OVER +1.10
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
06:45 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -105 / U -109)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.93 9.0 UNDER -0.07
totals_xgb 9.64 9.0 OVER +0.64
totals_ridge 9.27 9.0 OVER +0.27
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
06:45 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -115 / U +100)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.66 8.5 OVER +0.16
totals_xgb 8.53 8.5 — +0.03
totals_ridge 9.28 8.5 OVER +0.78
Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees
07:05 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -102 / U -112)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.47 7.5 OVER +0.97
totals_xgb 7.83 7.5 OVER +0.33
totals_ridge 8.90 7.5 OVER +1.40
Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds
07:10 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -108 / U -106)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.36 9.0 UNDER -0.64
totals_xgb 7.90 9.0 UNDER -1.10
totals_ridge 9.04 9.0 — +0.04
Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves
07:15 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -114 / U -102)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.05 7.5 OVER +0.55
totals_xgb 8.39 7.5 OVER +0.89
totals_ridge 8.98 7.5 OVER +1.48
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
07:40 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -106 / U -108)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 8.65 8.0 OVER +0.65
San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers
07:40 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O +101 / U -115)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.57 7.5 OVER +1.07
totals_xgb 7.39 7.5 UNDER -0.11
totals_ridge 8.75 7.5 OVER +1.25
Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals
07:45 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O +104 / U -119)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.44 7.5 OVER +0.94
totals_xgb 8.57 7.5 OVER +1.07
totals_ridge 8.91 7.5 OVER +1.41
Athletics @ Chicago Cubs
08:05 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -103 / U -109)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 8.71 7.5 OVER +1.21
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros
08:10 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -103 / U -111)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.22 9.0 UNDER -0.78
totals_xgb 7.32 9.0 UNDER -1.68
totals_ridge 8.90 9.0 UNDER -0.10
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels
09:38 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -118 / U +102)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 9.17 8.5 OVER +0.67
New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners
09:40 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O +101 / U -115)
Pitcher-based models abstained (rookie / thin-data starter) - team-level model (l30d) shown.
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_ridge_all_l30d 7.90 7.5 OVER +0.40
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
09:40 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -118 / U +103)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 10.11 9.0 OVER +1.11
totals_xgb 10.29 9.0 OVER +1.29
totals_ridge 9.46 9.0 OVER +0.46

CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d)

Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.

ModelnCLV (cents)±SEM
ml_logit_baseline272-0.33±0.14
ml_lgbm272-0.28±0.15
ml_xgb225-0.33±0.14
ml_catboost225-0.24±0.14
ml_logit_blended312-0.18±0.12
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_aug_v123+0.86±1.04
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_v112-0.32±0.71
ml_lgbm_walkforward_v112-0.92±0.64
ml_logit_all_l30d130-0.21±0.20
ml_lr347-0.76±0.52
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.