Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.
Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays
06:41 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
No totals data for this game.
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
06:46 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -109 / U -105)
Model
Sim μ (runs)
Open line
Pick
Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.43
8.5
UNDER
-0.07
totals_xgb
8.11
8.5
UNDER
-0.39
totals_ridge
9.31
8.5
OVER
+0.81
Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds
07:11 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -114 / U +100)
Model
Sim μ (runs)
Open line
Pick
Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.27
8.5
UNDER
-0.23
totals_xgb
8.87
8.5
OVER
+0.37
totals_ridge
9.35
8.5
OVER
+0.85
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
07:41 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
No totals data for this game.
San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers
07:41 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
No totals data for this game.
Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals
07:46 PM ET
🔒 Closed — game started · opening-line pick locked
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -102 / U -112)
Model
Sim μ (runs)
Open line
Pick
Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.38
8.0
OVER
+0.38
totals_xgb
7.39
8.0
UNDER
-0.61
totals_ridge
8.98
8.0
OVER
+0.98
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels
09:39 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -104 / U -111)
Model
Sim μ (runs)
Open line
Pick
Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.12
8.5
OVER
+0.62
totals_xgb
9.08
8.5
OVER
+0.58
totals_ridge
9.05
8.5
OVER
+0.55
New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners
09:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O +108 / U -122)
Model
Sim μ (runs)
Open line
Pick
Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
7.74
7.5
OVER
+0.24
totals_xgb
7.77
7.5
OVER
+0.27
totals_ridge
8.44
7.5
OVER
+0.94
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
09:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -104 / U -110)
Model
Sim μ (runs)
Open line
Pick
Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.47
9.0
OVER
+0.47
totals_xgb
9.57
9.0
OVER
+0.57
totals_ridge
9.51
9.0
OVER
+0.51
CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d)
Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.
Model
n
CLV (cents)
±SEM
ml_logit_baseline
269
-0.33
±0.15
ml_lgbm
269
-0.29
±0.15
ml_xgb
222
-0.34
±0.14
ml_catboost
222
-0.26
±0.14
ml_logit_blended
303
-0.21
±0.11
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_aug_v1
23
+0.86
±1.04
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_v1
12
-0.32
±0.71
ml_lgbm_walkforward_v1
12
-0.92
±0.64
ml_logit_all_l30d
121
-0.32
±0.20
ml_lr3
47
-0.76
±0.52
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days.
Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present).
Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal).
Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip).
Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current.
10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228).
This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.