ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

Snapshot 10:13 PM ET · May 27 · manual refresh only

Pick date:Go today tomorrow

Date: 2026-05-29 · 15 games · primary model marked with *

San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals

San Diego Padres (away) · Open — / Curr —

Washington Nationals (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers

Kansas City Royals (away) · Open — / Curr —

Texas Rangers (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays

Los Angeles Angels (away) · Open — / Curr —

Tampa Bay Rays (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs (away) · Open — / Curr —

St. Louis Cardinals (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners

Arizona Diamondbacks (away) · Open — / Curr —

Seattle Mariners (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Minnesota Twins (away) · Open — / Curr —

Pittsburgh Pirates (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

Miami Marlins (away) · Open — / Curr —

New York Mets (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Philadelphia Phillies (away) · Open — / Curr —

Los Angeles Dodgers (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros

Milwaukee Brewers (away) · Open — / Curr —

Houston Astros (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

San Francisco Giants (away) · Open — / Curr —

Colorado Rockies (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

Boston Red Sox (away) · Open — / Curr —

Cleveland Guardians (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds

Atlanta Braves (away) · Open — / Curr —

Cincinnati Reds (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers (away) · Open — / Curr —

Chicago White Sox (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays (away) · Open — / Curr —

Baltimore Orioles (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

New York Yankees @ Athletics

New York Yankees (away) · Open — / Curr —

Athletics (home) · Open — / Curr —

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals

No totals data for this game.

Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers

No totals data for this game.

Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays

No totals data for this game.

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

No totals data for this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners

No totals data for this game.

Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates

No totals data for this game.

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

No totals data for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

No totals data for this game.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros

No totals data for this game.

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

No totals data for this game.

Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

No totals data for this game.

Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds

No totals data for this game.

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

No totals data for this game.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

No totals data for this game.

New York Yankees @ Athletics

No totals data for this game.

CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d)

Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.

Model	n	CLV (cents)	±SEM
ml_logit_baseline	282	-0.24	±0.14
ml_lgbm	282	-0.10	±0.14
ml_xgb	186	-0.24	±0.14
ml_catboost	186	-0.23	±0.14
ml_logit_blended	237	-0.17	±0.13
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_aug_v1	79	+0.12	±0.34
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_v1	57	-0.33	±0.22
ml_lgbm_walkforward_v1	57	-0.27	±0.23
ml_logit_all_l30d	55	-0.20	±0.31
ml_lr3	103	-0.36	±0.27

All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.