ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

TodayTomorrow
Snapshot 10:23 PM ET · May 26 · manual refresh only
Pick date:Gotodaytomorrow
Date: 2026-05-26 · 15 games · primary model marked with *
Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians
06:11 PM ET
Washington Nationals (away) · Cade Cavalli · Open +118 / Curr +117 (Pinnacle)
Cleveland Guardians (home) · Joey Cantillo · Open -130 / Curr -127 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 6-3 Washington Nationals (away) +118 / +117 +156 +115 +3c
ml_lgbm 6-3 Washington Nationals (away) +118 / +117 +114 +114 +4c
ml_xgb 6-3 Washington Nationals (away) +118 / +117 +110 -132 +50c
ml_catboost 6-3 Washington Nationals (away) +118 / +117 +111 -103 +21c
ml_logit_blended 6-3 Washington Nationals (away) +118 / +117 -102 -116 +34c
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
06:36 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays (away) · Griffin Jax · Open -105 / Curr -109 (Pinnacle)
Baltimore Orioles (home) · Shane Baz · Open -105 / Curr +101 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-6 Tampa Bay Rays (away) -105 / -109 -100 -101 -4c
ml_lgbm 6-1 Baltimore Orioles (home) -105 / +101 -114 -114 +8c
ml_xgb 1-6 Tampa Bay Rays (away) -105 / -109 +111 -132 +27c
ml_catboost 1-6 Tampa Bay Rays (away) -105 / -109 +112 -103 -2c
ml_logit_blended 1-6 Tampa Bay Rays (away) -105 / -109 -106 -116 +10c
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
06:41 PM ET
Chicago Cubs (away) · Jordan Wicks · Open +111 / Curr +120 (Pinnacle)
Pittsburgh Pirates (home) · Braxton Ashcraft · Open -122 / Curr -130 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-12 Chicago Cubs (away) +111 / +120 +144 +115 -4c
ml_lgbm 12-1 Pittsburgh Pirates (home) -122 / -130 -153 -150 +28c
ml_xgb 1-12 Chicago Cubs (away) +111 / +120 +131 -100 +11c
ml_catboost 1-12 Chicago Cubs (away) +111 / +120 +219 -102 +13c
ml_logit_blended 12-1 Pittsburgh Pirates (home) -122 / -130 -138 -117 -5c
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers
06:41 PM ET
Los Angeles Angels (away) · Jack Kochanowicz · Open +117 / Curr +122 (Pinnacle)
Detroit Tigers (home) · Keider Montero · Open -128 / Curr -132 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 10-6 Los Angeles Angels (away) +117 / +122 +131 -101 +18c
ml_lgbm 10-6 Los Angeles Angels (away) +117 / +122 +114 +114 +3c
ml_xgb 10-6 Los Angeles Angels (away) +117 / +122 +115 -120 +37c
ml_catboost 10-6 Los Angeles Angels (away) +117 / +122 +142 -103 +20c
ml_logit_blended 10-6 Los Angeles Angels (away) +117 / +122 +117 +114 +3c
Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox
06:46 PM ET
Atlanta Braves (away) · Spencer Strider · Open -110 / Curr -102 (Pinnacle)
Boston Red Sox (home) · Ranger Suarez · Open +100 / Curr -106 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 6-7 Boston Red Sox (home) +100 / -106 -115 +101 -1c
ml_lgbm 6-7 Boston Red Sox (home) +100 / -106 -153 -150 +50c
ml_xgb 6-7 Boston Red Sox (home) +100 / -106 -133 -100 0c
ml_catboost 6-7 Boston Red Sox (home) +100 / -106 -135 +103 -3c
ml_logit_blended 7-6 Atlanta Braves (away) -110 / -102 +101 -116 +6c
Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays
07:08 PM ET
Miami Marlins (away) · Sandy Alcantara · Open — / Curr +108 (Pinnacle)
Toronto Blue Jays (home) · Braydon Fisher · Open — / Curr -118 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-8 Miami Marlins (away) — / +108 +136 -101 +9c
ml_lgbm 1-8 Miami Marlins (away) — / +108 -101 -108 +16c
ml_xgb 1-8 Miami Marlins (away) — / +108 +127 -100 +8c
ml_catboost 1-8 Miami Marlins (away) — / +108 +141 -103 +11c
ml_logit_blended 8-1 Toronto Blue Jays (home) — / -118 -151 -140 +22c
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
07:11 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds (away) · Chase Burns · Open — / Curr -112 (Pinnacle)
New York Mets (home) · David Peterson · Open — / Curr +103 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 2-7 (Final) New York Mets (home) — / +103 +103 +101 +2c
ml_lgbm 7-2 (Final) Cincinnati Reds (away) — / -112 -101 -108 -5c
ml_xgb 7-2 (Final) Cincinnati Reds (away) — / -112 +112 -132 +20c
ml_catboost 7-2 (Final) Cincinnati Reds (away) — / -112 -120 -157 +45c
ml_logit_blended 7-2 (Final) Cincinnati Reds (away) — / -112 -132 -116 +3c
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
07:41 PM ET
St. Louis Cardinals (away) · Michael McGreevy · Open +144 / Curr +183 (Pinnacle)
Milwaukee Brewers (home) · Kyle Harrison · Open -161 / Curr -200 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-6 (Final) St. Louis Cardinals (away) +144 / +183 +143 +115 +29c
ml_lgbm 0-6 (Final) St. Louis Cardinals (away) +144 / +183 +153 +150 -6c
ml_xgb 0-6 (Final) St. Louis Cardinals (away) +144 / +183 +129 -100 +44c
ml_catboost 0-6 (Final) St. Louis Cardinals (away) +144 / +183 +152 -103 +47c
ml_logit_blended 0-6 (Final) St. Louis Cardinals (away) +144 / +183 +120 +114 +30c
New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals
07:41 PM ET
New York Yankees (away) · Cam Schlittler · Open -200 / Curr -185 (Pinnacle)
Kansas City Royals (home) · Bailey Falter · Open +178 / Curr +168 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-13 (End 8th) Kansas City Royals (home) +178 / +168 +106 +160 +18c
ml_lgbm 1-13 (End 8th) Kansas City Royals (home) +178 / +168 +114 +108 +70c
ml_xgb 1-13 (End 8th) Kansas City Royals (home) +178 / +168 -108 +132 +46c
ml_catboost 1-13 (End 8th) Kansas City Royals (home) +178 / +168 +119 +157 +21c
ml_logit_blended 1-13 (End 8th) Kansas City Royals (home) +178 / +168 +123 +116 +62c
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
07:41 PM ET
Minnesota Twins (away) · Joe Ryan · Open -112 / Curr -110 (Pinnacle)
Chicago White Sox (home) · Sean Burke · Open +102 / Curr +102 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 2-2 (Bottom 10th) Chicago White Sox (home) +102 / +102 -100 +101 +1c
ml_lgbm 2-2 (Bottom 10th) Minnesota Twins (away) -112 / -110 -101 -108 -5c
ml_xgb 2-2 (Bottom 10th) Minnesota Twins (away) -112 / -110 +102 -132 +20c
ml_catboost 2-2 (Bottom 10th) Chicago White Sox (home) +102 / +102 -107 +103 -1c
ml_logit_blended 2-2 (Bottom 10th) Minnesota Twins (away) -112 / -110 -109 -116 +3c
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
08:06 PM ET
Houston Astros (away) · Jason Alexander · Open +122 / Curr +116 (Pinnacle)
Texas Rangers (home) · Jack Leiter · Open -135 / Curr -127 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 6-9 (Bottom 8th) Houston Astros (away) +122 / +116 +136 -101 +23c
ml_lgbm 9-6 (Bottom 8th) Texas Rangers (home) -135 / -127 -153 -150 +15c
ml_xgb 6-9 (Bottom 8th) Houston Astros (away) +122 / +116 +113 -128 +50c
ml_catboost 6-9 (Bottom 8th) Houston Astros (away) +122 / +116 +173 -103 +25c
ml_logit_blended 6-9 (Bottom 8th) Houston Astros (away) +122 / +116 +134 +114 +8c
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres
09:41 PM ET
Philadelphia Phillies (away) · Aaron Nola · Open +106 / Curr -103 (Pinnacle)
San Diego Padres (home) · Randy Vásquez · Open -118 / Curr -105 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 4-0 (Bottom 3rd) Philadelphia Phillies (away) +106 / -103 +105 -101 +7c
ml_lgbm 0-4 (Bottom 3rd) San Diego Padres (home) -118 / -105 -114 -114 -4c
ml_xgb 4-0 (Bottom 3rd) Philadelphia Phillies (away) +106 / -103 +124 -100 +6c
ml_catboost 4-0 (Bottom 3rd) Philadelphia Phillies (away) +106 / -103 +119 -103 +9c
ml_logit_blended 0-4 (Bottom 3rd) San Diego Padres (home) -118 / -105 -114 -114 -4c
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
09:41 PM ET
Seattle Mariners (away) · Emerson Hancock · Open -111 / Curr +102 (Pinnacle)
Athletics (home) · Open +101 / Curr -111 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-3 (Top 3rd) Athletics (home) +101 / -111 -127 +101 0c
ml_lgbm 3-0 (Top 3rd) Seattle Mariners (away) -111 / +102 -114 -108 -3c
ml_xgb 3-0 (Top 3rd) Seattle Mariners (away) -111 / +102 +109 -132 +21c
ml_catboost 0-3 (Top 3rd) Athletics (home) +101 / -111 -128 +103 -2c
ml_logit_blended 0-3 (Top 3rd) Athletics (home) +101 / -111 -118 -114 +15c
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
09:46 PM ET
Arizona Diamondbacks (away) · Eduardo Rodriguez · Open +104 / Curr +100 (Pinnacle)
San Francisco Giants (home) · Tyler Mahle · Open -115 / Curr -109 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 3-1 (Top 3rd) Arizona Diamondbacks (away) +104 / +100 +116 -101 +5c
ml_lgbm 1-3 (Top 3rd) San Francisco Giants (home) -115 / -109 -114 -114 -1c
ml_xgb 3-1 (Top 3rd) Arizona Diamondbacks (away) +104 / +100 +106 -132 +36c
ml_catboost 3-1 (Top 3rd) Arizona Diamondbacks (away) +104 / +100 +123 -103 +7c
ml_logit_blended 1-3 (Top 3rd) San Francisco Giants (home) -115 / -109 -131 -114 -1c
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
10:11 PM ET
Colorado Rockies (away) · Kyle Freeland velo -1.61 · Open +198 / Curr +203 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Dodgers (home) · Eric Lauer · Open -227 / Curr -227 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-2 (Bottom 1st) Colorado Rockies (away) +198 / +203 +125 -101 +99c
ml_lgbm 0-2 (Bottom 1st) Colorado Rockies (away) +198 / +203 +153 +150 +48c
ml_xgb 0-2 (Bottom 1st) Colorado Rockies (away) +198 / +203 +125 -100 +98c
ml_catboost 0-2 (Bottom 1st) Colorado Rockies (away) +198 / +203 +166 -103 +101c
ml_logit_blended 0-2 (Bottom 1st) Colorado Rockies (away) +198 / +203 +143 +140 +58c

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

FWSH6CLE3 F5WSH4CLE1 · Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians
06:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -115 / U +100)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.58 7.5 OVER +1.08
totals_xgb 8.09 7.5 OVER +0.59
totals_ridge 8.37 7.5 OVER +0.87
FTB1BAL6 F5TB1BAL6 · Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
06:36 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -120 / U +104)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.65 8.5 OVER +0.15
totals_xgb 9.62 8.5 OVER +1.12
totals_ridge 8.96 8.5 OVER +0.46
FCHC1PIT12 F5CHC1PIT8 · Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
06:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -111 / U -103)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.29 8.0 OVER +0.29
totals_xgb 9.06 8.0 OVER +1.06
totals_ridge 8.74 8.0 OVER +0.74
FLAA10DET6 F5LAA4DET5 · Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers
06:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -104 / U -110)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.30 8.5 UNDER -0.20
totals_xgb 7.86 8.5 UNDER -0.64
totals_ridge 8.91 8.5 OVER +0.41
FATL7BOS6 F5ATL2BOS2 · Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox
06:46 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -115 / U +100)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.77 8.0 OVER +0.77
totals_xgb 9.32 8.0 OVER +1.32
totals_ridge 9.28 8.0 OVER +1.28
FMIA1TOR8 F5MIA1TOR2 · Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays
07:08 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.26 — — —
totals_xgb 7.00 — — —
totals_ridge 8.90 — — —
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
07:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.40 — — —
totals_xgb 8.56 — — —
totals_ridge 8.85 — — —
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
07:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -111 / U -103)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.39 8.0 OVER +0.39
totals_xgb 7.63 8.0 UNDER -0.37
totals_ridge 8.58 8.0 OVER +0.58
New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals
07:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -101 / U -114)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.04 9.0 — +0.04
totals_xgb 9.46 9.0 OVER +0.46
totals_ridge 8.90 9.0 UNDER -0.10
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
07:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -115 / U +101)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.17 7.5 OVER +0.67
totals_xgb 7.57 7.5 OVER +0.07
totals_ridge 8.58 7.5 OVER +1.08
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
08:06 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O +100 / U -114)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.36 8.5 UNDER -0.14
totals_xgb 8.02 8.5 UNDER -0.48
totals_ridge 8.72 8.5 OVER +0.22
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres
09:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -115 / U +100)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.53 7.5 OVER +1.03
totals_xgb 8.30 7.5 OVER +0.80
totals_ridge 8.51 7.5 OVER +1.01
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
09:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -118 / U +103)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.78 9.0 UNDER -0.22
totals_xgb 8.26 9.0 UNDER -0.74
totals_ridge 8.93 9.0 UNDER -0.07
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
09:46 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -103 / U -111)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.83 8.0 OVER +0.83
totals_xgb 10.05 8.0 OVER +2.05
totals_ridge 8.37 8.0 OVER +0.37
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
10:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O +103 / U -118)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.66 9.0 UNDER -0.34
totals_xgb 9.29 9.0 OVER +0.29
totals_ridge 9.08 9.0 OVER +0.08

CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d)

Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.

ModelnCLV (cents)±SEM
ml_logit_baseline273-0.25±0.14
ml_lgbm273-0.07±0.14
ml_xgb171-0.24±0.15
ml_catboost171-0.26±0.15
ml_logit_blended222-0.23±0.13
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_aug_v185+0.18±0.32
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_v163-0.41±0.21
ml_lgbm_walkforward_v163-0.36±0.21
ml_logit_all_l30d40-0.24±0.37
ml_lr3109-0.35±0.25
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.