ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

TodayTomorrow
Snapshot 8:42 PM ET · May 25 · manual refresh only
Pick date:Gotodaytomorrow
Date: 2026-05-25 · 13 games · primary model marked with *
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
01:36 PM ET
Chicago Cubs (away) · Ben Brown · Open — / Curr -110 (Pinnacle)
Pittsburgh Pirates (home) · Carmen Mlodzinski · Open — / Curr -110 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 2-1 Pittsburgh Pirates (home) — / -110 -109 -101 -9c
ml_lgbm 2-1 Pittsburgh Pirates (home) — / -110 -114 -106 -4c
ml_xgb 1-2 Chicago Cubs (away) — / -110 +119 -109 -1c
ml_catboost 1-2 Chicago Cubs (away) — / -110 +146 -102 -8c
ml_logit_blended 1-2 Chicago Cubs (away) — / -110 +104 -108 -2c
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
01:36 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays (away) · Shane McClanahan · Open -120 / Curr +155 (Pinnacle)
Baltimore Orioles (home) · Kyle Bradish · Open +110 / Curr -192 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Shane McClanahan (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 9-7 Baltimore Orioles (home) +110 / -192 -120 -111 +21c
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
02:11 PM ET
St. Louis Cardinals (away) · Matthew Liberatore · Open +181 / Curr +194 (Pinnacle)
Milwaukee Brewers (home) · Jacob Misiorowski · Open -204 / Curr -213 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-5 St. Louis Cardinals (away) +181 / +194 +139 +101 +80c
ml_lgbm 1-5 St. Louis Cardinals (away) +181 / +194 +114 +106 +75c
ml_xgb 1-5 St. Louis Cardinals (away) +181 / +194 +123 -105 +86c
ml_catboost 1-5 St. Louis Cardinals (away) +181 / +194 +133 -102 +83c
ml_logit_blended 1-5 St. Louis Cardinals (away) +181 / +194 +171 +136 +45c
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
02:11 PM ET
Minnesota Twins (away) · Zebby Matthews · Open -108 / Curr +100 (Pinnacle)
Chicago White Sox (home) · Anthony Kay · Open -102 / Curr -108 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Anthony Kay (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 1-3 Minnesota Twins (away) -108 / +100 -110 -108 +1c
New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals
03:41 PM ET
New York Yankees (away) · Will Warren · Open -147 / Curr -120 (Pinnacle)
Kansas City Royals (home) · Michael Wacha · Open +131 / Curr -101 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 3-4 Kansas City Royals (home) +131 / -101 -102 -101 +32c
ml_lgbm 3-4 Kansas City Royals (home) +131 / -101 +114 +107 +24c
ml_xgb 3-4 Kansas City Royals (home) +131 / -101 +115 +116 +15c
ml_catboost 3-4 Kansas City Royals (home) +131 / -101 +112 +129 +2c
ml_logit_blended 3-4 Kansas City Royals (home) +131 / -101 +112 +108 +23c
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
04:11 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds (away) · Nick Lodolo · Open +136 / Curr +118 (Pinnacle)
New York Mets (home) · Nolan McLean · Open -152 / Curr -128 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 7-2 Cincinnati Reds (away) +136 / +118 +119 +101 +35c
ml_lgbm 7-2 Cincinnati Reds (away) +136 / +118 -101 -106 +42c
ml_xgb 7-2 Cincinnati Reds (away) +136 / +118 +108 -116 +52c
ml_catboost 7-2 Cincinnati Reds (away) +136 / +118 +115 -102 +38c
ml_logit_blended 7-2 Cincinnati Reds (away) +136 / +118 +102 -108 +44c
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
05:06 PM ET
Arizona Diamondbacks (away) · Merrill Kelly · Open +123 / Curr -455 (Pinnacle)
San Francisco Giants (home) · Landen Roupp · Open -135 / Curr +340 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 6-2 Arizona Diamondbacks (away) +123 / -455 +110 +101 +22c
ml_lgbm 6-2 Arizona Diamondbacks (away) +123 / -455 +114 +106 +17c
ml_xgb 6-2 Arizona Diamondbacks (away) +123 / -455 +147 -100 +23c
ml_catboost 6-2 Arizona Diamondbacks (away) +123 / -455 +144 -102 +25c
ml_logit_blended 2-6 San Francisco Giants (home) -135 / +340 -154 -136 +1c
Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians
06:11 PM ET
Washington Nationals (away) · PJ Poulin · Open +152 / Curr +154 (Pinnacle)
Cleveland Guardians (home) · Tanner Bibee · Open -169 / Curr -167 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 10-2 (Bottom 9th) Washington Nationals (away) +152 / +154 +127 +101 +51c
ml_lgbm 10-2 (Bottom 9th) Washington Nationals (away) +152 / +154 +153 +152 0c
ml_xgb 10-2 (Bottom 9th) Washington Nationals (away) +152 / +154 +110 -116 +68c
ml_catboost 10-2 (Bottom 9th) Washington Nationals (away) +152 / +154 +145 -102 +54c
ml_logit_blended 10-2 (Bottom 9th) Washington Nationals (away) +152 / +154 +125 +118 +34c
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres
06:41 PM ET
Philadelphia Phillies (away) · Jesús Luzardo · Open -122 / Curr -227 (Pinnacle)
San Diego Padres (home) · Griffin Canning · Open +111 / Curr +184 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-3 (Bottom 8th) San Diego Padres (home) +111 / +184 +104 -100 +11c
ml_lgbm 3-0 (Bottom 8th) Philadelphia Phillies (away) -122 / -227 -233 -150 +28c
ml_xgb 0-3 (Bottom 8th) San Diego Padres (home) +111 / +184 -110 +116 -5c
ml_catboost 3-0 (Bottom 8th) Philadelphia Phillies (away) -122 / -227 -113 -129 +7c
ml_logit_blended 0-3 (Bottom 8th) San Diego Padres (home) +111 / +184 +121 +108 +3c
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
07:06 PM ET
Houston Astros (away) · Tatsuya Imai · Open +115 / Curr -256 (Pinnacle)
Texas Rangers (home) · Kumar Rocker velo -1.07 · Open -127 / Curr +216 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Tatsuya Imai (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 4-0 (Top 6th) Houston Astros (away) +115 / -256 +106 -108 +23c
Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays
07:08 PM ET
Miami Marlins (away) · Janson Junk · Open +146 / Curr -294 (Pinnacle)
Toronto Blue Jays (home) · Trey Yesavage · Open -161 / Curr +231 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 3-1 (Top 6th) Miami Marlins (away) +146 / -294 +134 +101 +45c
ml_lgbm 3-1 (Top 6th) Miami Marlins (away) +146 / -294 -101 -106 +52c
ml_xgb 3-1 (Top 6th) Miami Marlins (away) +146 / -294 +114 -109 +55c
ml_catboost 3-1 (Top 6th) Miami Marlins (away) +146 / -294 +117 -102 +48c
ml_logit_blended 3-1 (Top 6th) Miami Marlins (away) +146 / -294 +109 -108 +54c
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
09:11 PM ET
Colorado Rockies (away) · Tanner Gordon velo -1.13 · Open +250 / Curr +263 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Dodgers (home) · Emmet Sheehan · Open -286 / Curr -294 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — Colorado Rockies (away) +250 / +263 +151 +111 +139c
ml_lgbm — Colorado Rockies (away) +250 / +263 +153 +152 +98c
ml_xgb — Colorado Rockies (away) +250 / +263 +120 -109 +159c
ml_catboost — Colorado Rockies (away) +250 / +263 +226 -102 +152c
ml_logit_blended — Colorado Rockies (away) +250 / +263 +143 +136 +114c
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
09:41 PM ET
Seattle Mariners (away) · Luis Castillo · Open -114 / Curr -108 (Pinnacle)
Athletics (home) · Aaron Civale · Open +103 / Curr +100 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — Athletics (home) +103 / +100 -103 -101 +4c
ml_lgbm — Athletics (home) +103 / +100 +101 +106 -3c
ml_xgb — Seattle Mariners (away) -114 / -108 +110 -116 +2c
ml_catboost — Seattle Mariners (away) -114 / -108 -101 -121 +8c
ml_logit_blended — Athletics (home) +103 / +100 +103 +108 -5c

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

FCHC1PIT2 F5CHC1PIT1 · Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
01:36 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: — (O — / U —)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 7.94 — — —
totals_xgb 8.75 — — —
totals_ridge 8.73 — — —
FTB7BAL9 F5TB0BAL0 · Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
01:36 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FSTL1MIL5 F5STL0MIL3 · St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
02:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -112 / U -102)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.00 7.5 OVER +0.50
totals_xgb 6.92 7.5 UNDER -0.58
totals_ridge 8.52 7.5 OVER +1.02
FMIN1CWS3 F5MIN1CWS3 · Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
02:11 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FNYY4KC3 F5NYY2KC1 · New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals
03:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -109 / U -105)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.15 9.0 OVER +0.15
totals_xgb 9.27 9.0 OVER +0.27
totals_ridge 8.87 9.0 UNDER -0.13
FCIN7NYM2 F5CIN7NYM0 · Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
04:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -104 / U -110)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.37 7.5 OVER +0.87
totals_xgb 7.40 7.5 UNDER -0.10
totals_ridge 8.74 7.5 OVER +1.24
FARI6SF2 F5ARI4SF2 · Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
05:06 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -105 / U -109)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.73 7.5 OVER +1.23
totals_xgb 8.70 7.5 OVER +1.20
totals_ridge 8.39 7.5 OVER +0.89
Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians
06:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -115 / U +100)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.20 8.0 OVER +0.20
totals_xgb 8.23 8.0 OVER +0.23
totals_ridge 8.32 8.0 OVER +0.32
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres
06:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -102 / U -114)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.39 7.5 OVER +0.89
totals_xgb 7.95 7.5 OVER +0.45
totals_ridge 8.46 7.5 OVER +0.96
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
07:06 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays
07:08 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -110 / U -104)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.63 7.5 OVER +1.13
totals_xgb 7.86 7.5 OVER +0.36
totals_ridge 8.90 7.5 OVER +1.40
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
09:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -103 / U -111)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.71 9.0 UNDER -0.29
totals_xgb 9.65 9.0 OVER +0.65
totals_ridge 9.16 9.0 OVER +0.16
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
09:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 10.0 (O -104 / U -111)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.13 10.0 UNDER -0.87
totals_xgb 8.78 10.0 UNDER -1.22
totals_ridge 8.91 10.0 UNDER -1.09

CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d)

Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.

ModelnCLV (cents)±SEM
ml_logit_baseline277-0.24±0.14
ml_lgbm277-0.02±0.14
ml_xgb162-0.21±0.15
ml_catboost162-0.23±0.15
ml_logit_blended210-0.23±0.13
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_aug_v198+0.12±0.29
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_v176-0.37±0.20
ml_lgbm_walkforward_v176-0.16±0.21
ml_logit_all_l30d28-0.27±0.46
ml_lr3122-0.31±0.24
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.