ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

TodayTomorrow
Last updated 2:17 PM ET · May 25 · auto-refreshes hourly 9:30 AM – 6:30 PM ET
Pick date:Gotodaytomorrow
Date: 2026-05-24 · 15 games · primary model marked with *
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays
12:16 PM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) · Mitch Keller · Open +136 / Curr +152 (Pinnacle)
Toronto Blue Jays (home) · Dylan Cease · Open -149 / Curr -167 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 4-1 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +136 / +152 +134 +103 +33c
ml_lgbm 1-4 Toronto Blue Jays (home) -149 / -167 -153 -153 +4c
ml_xgb 4-1 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +136 / +152 +121 -105 +41c
ml_catboost 4-1 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +136 / +152 +129 -104 +40c
ml_logit_blended 4-1 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +136 / +152 +154 +128 +8c
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
12:36 PM ET
Detroit Tigers (away) · Framber Valdez · Open +110 / Curr +112 (Pinnacle)
Baltimore Orioles (home) · Brandon Young · Open -122 / Curr -122 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 3-5 Detroit Tigers (away) +110 / +112 -114 -145 +55c
ml_lgbm 3-5 Detroit Tigers (away) +110 / +112 +114 -100 +10c
ml_xgb 3-5 Detroit Tigers (away) +110 / +112 +113 -105 +15c
ml_catboost 3-5 Detroit Tigers (away) +110 / +112 +109 -104 +14c
ml_logit_blended 3-5 Detroit Tigers (away) +110 / +112 +110 -102 +12c
Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies
01:36 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians (away) · Parker Messick · Open -122 / Curr -110 (Pinnacle)
Philadelphia Phillies (home) · Andrew Painter · Open +111 / Curr +102 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Andrew Painter (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 1-3 Philadelphia Phillies (home) +111 / +102 +103 +102 +9c
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
01:36 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays (away) · Drew Rasmussen · Open +120 / Curr +119 (Pinnacle)
New York Yankees (home) · Ryan Weathers · Open -133 / Curr -128 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-2 Tampa Bay Rays (away) +120 / +119 +109 +103 +17c
ml_lgbm 0-2 Tampa Bay Rays (away) +120 / +119 -101 -104 +24c
ml_xgb 0-2 Tampa Bay Rays (away) +120 / +119 +112 -105 +25c
ml_catboost 0-2 Tampa Bay Rays (away) +120 / +119 +113 -104 +24c
ml_logit_blended 2-0 New York Yankees (home) -133 / -128 -140 -128 -6c
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox
01:36 PM ET
Minnesota Twins (away) · Bailey Ober · Open +139 / Curr +139 (Pinnacle)
Boston Red Sox (home) · Sonny Gray · Open -154 / Curr -152 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 6-5 Minnesota Twins (away) +139 / +139 +131 +103 +36c
ml_lgbm 6-5 Minnesota Twins (away) +139 / +139 +114 -100 +39c
ml_xgb 6-5 Minnesota Twins (away) +139 / +139 +106 -105 +44c
ml_catboost 6-5 Minnesota Twins (away) +139 / +139 +129 -104 +43c
ml_logit_blended 6-5 Minnesota Twins (away) +139 / +139 +111 -102 +41c
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
01:41 PM ET
New York Mets (away) · Christian Scott · Open -116 / Curr +114 (Pinnacle)
Miami Marlins (home) · Tyler Phillips · Open +105 / Curr -123 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Christian Scott (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 4-0 Miami Marlins (home) +105 / -123 -108 +102 +3c
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
02:11 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers (away) · Yoshinobu Yamamoto · Open -169 / Curr -149 (Pinnacle)
Milwaukee Brewers (home) · Brandon Sproat · Open +153 / Curr +137 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 5-1 Los Angeles Dodgers (away) -169 / -149 -117 -200 +31c
ml_lgbm 1-5 Milwaukee Brewers (home) +153 / +137 -114 -100 +53c
ml_xgb 1-5 Milwaukee Brewers (home) +153 / +137 -149 +105 +48c
ml_catboost 1-5 Milwaukee Brewers (home) +153 / +137 +102 +130 +23c
ml_logit_blended 1-5 Milwaukee Brewers (home) +153 / +137 +105 +102 +51c
Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals
02:11 PM ET
Seattle Mariners (away) · Bryan Woo · Open -135 / Curr -114 (Pinnacle)
Kansas City Royals (home) · Seth Lugo · Open +122 / Curr +106 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 6-8 Seattle Mariners (away) -135 / -114 -107 -145 +10c
ml_lgbm 8-6 Kansas City Royals (home) +122 / +106 +114 +110 +12c
ml_xgb 8-6 Kansas City Royals (home) +122 / +106 -104 +105 +17c
ml_catboost 6-8 Seattle Mariners (away) -135 / -114 -122 -130 -5c
ml_logit_blended 8-6 Kansas City Royals (home) +122 / +106 +102 +102 +20c
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
02:21 PM ET
Houston Astros (away) · Peter Lambert · Open +145 / Curr +152 (Pinnacle)
Chicago Cubs (home) · Shota Imanaga · Open -161 / Curr -164 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Peter Lambert (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 8-5 Houston Astros (away) +145 / +152 +135 +128 +17c
Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants
04:06 PM ET
Chicago White Sox (away) · Noah Schultz · Open -104 / Curr +105 (Pinnacle)
San Francisco Giants (home) · Robbie Ray · Open -106 / Curr -114 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Noah Schultz (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 8-5 San Francisco Giants (home) -106 / -114 -170 -128 +21c
Athletics @ San Diego Padres
04:11 PM ET
Athletics (away) · Luis Medina · Open +146 / Curr -833 (Pinnacle)
San Diego Padres (home) · Michael King · Open -161 / Curr +570 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Luis Medina (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 5-2 Athletics (away) +146 / -833 +115 +122 +24c
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
04:11 PM ET
Washington Nationals (away) · Foster Griffin · Open +139 / Curr -714 (Pinnacle)
Atlanta Braves (home) · Martín Pérez · Open -154 / Curr +492 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Foster Griffin (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 2-1 Washington Nationals (away) +139 / -714 -101 -102 +41c
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
04:11 PM ET
Colorado Rockies (away) · Jose Quintana · Open +166 / Curr +173 (Pinnacle)
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) · Ryne Nelson · Open -185 / Curr -189 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-9 Colorado Rockies (away) +166 / +173 +123 +103 +63c
ml_lgbm 1-9 Colorado Rockies (away) +166 / +173 +153 +153 +13c
ml_xgb 1-9 Colorado Rockies (away) +166 / +173 +137 -105 +71c
ml_catboost 1-9 Colorado Rockies (away) +166 / +173 +171 -104 +70c
ml_logit_blended 1-9 Colorado Rockies (away) +166 / +173 +142 +128 +38c
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
06:06 PM ET
Detroit Tigers (away) · Troy Melton · Open +111 / Curr +117 (Pinnacle)
Baltimore Orioles (home) · Trevor Rogers · Open -123 / Curr -127 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 4-1 Detroit Tigers (away) +111 / +117 -114 -180 +91c
ml_logit_baseline * 4-1 Detroit Tigers (away) +111 / +117 -114 -180 +91c
ml_lgbm 4-1 Detroit Tigers (away) +111 / +117 -101 -106 +17c
ml_lgbm 4-1 Detroit Tigers (away) +111 / +117 -101 -106 +17c
ml_xgb 4-1 Detroit Tigers (away) +111 / +117 +111 -107 +18c
ml_xgb 4-1 Detroit Tigers (away) +111 / +117 +111 -107 +18c
ml_catboost 4-1 Detroit Tigers (away) +111 / +117 +112 -100 +11c
ml_catboost 4-1 Detroit Tigers (away) +111 / +117 +112 -100 +11c
ml_logit_blended 4-1 Detroit Tigers (away) +111 / +117 +107 -107 +18c
ml_logit_blended 4-1 Detroit Tigers (away) +111 / +117 +107 -107 +18c
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
07:21 PM ET
Texas Rangers (away) · MacKenzie Gore · Open +105 / Curr -143 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Angels (home) · Reid Detmers · Open -114 / Curr +122 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-2 Texas Rangers (away) +105 / -143 +110 +103 +2c
ml_lgbm 1-2 Texas Rangers (away) +105 / -143 -114 -110 +15c
ml_xgb 1-2 Texas Rangers (away) +105 / -143 +104 -103 +8c
ml_catboost 1-2 Texas Rangers (away) +105 / -143 +107 -104 +9c
ml_logit_blended 1-2 Texas Rangers (away) +105 / -143 +105 -102 +7c

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

FPIT4TOR1 F5PIT2TOR1 · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays
12:16 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -114 / U -101)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.58 7.5 OVER +1.08
totals_xgb 8.44 7.5 OVER +0.94
totals_ridge 8.84 7.5 OVER +1.34
FDET3BAL5 F5DET2BAL0 · Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
12:36 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -102 / U -112)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.33 8.5 UNDER -0.17
totals_xgb 8.06 8.5 UNDER -0.44
totals_ridge 8.92 8.5 OVER +0.42
FCLE3PHI1 F5CLE1PHI0 · Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies
01:36 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FTB0NYY2 F5TB0NYY0 · Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
01:36 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O +102 / U -116)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.40 7.5 OVER +0.90
totals_xgb 7.50 7.5 — +0.00
totals_ridge 8.86 7.5 OVER +1.36
FMIN6BOS5 F5MIN3BOS4 · Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox
01:36 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -101 / U -114)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.59 8.0 OVER +0.59
totals_xgb 10.07 8.0 OVER +2.07
totals_ridge 9.24 8.0 OVER +1.24
FNYM0MIA4 F5NYM0MIA0 · New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
01:41 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FLAD5MIL1 F5LAD5MIL1 · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
02:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -109 / U -105)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.27 8.0 OVER +0.27
totals_xgb 9.29 8.0 OVER +1.29
totals_ridge 8.64 8.0 OVER +0.64
FSEA6KC8 F5SEA1KC4 · Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals
02:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O +104 / U -119)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.12 9.0 OVER +0.12
totals_xgb 8.85 9.0 UNDER -0.15
totals_ridge 8.83 9.0 UNDER -0.17
FHOU8CHC5 F5HOU7CHC3 · Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
02:21 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FCWS5SF8 F5CWS4SF8 · Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants
04:06 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FOAK5SD2 F5OAK4SD0 · Athletics @ San Diego Padres
04:11 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FWSH2ATL1 F5WSH1ATL0 · Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
04:11 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FCOL1ARI9 F5COL0ARI7 · Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
04:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.5 (O +104 / U -119)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.26 9.5 UNDER -0.24
totals_xgb 10.36 9.5 OVER +0.86
totals_ridge 9.44 9.5 UNDER -0.06
FDET4BAL1 F5DET4BAL1 · Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
06:06 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FTEX1LAA2 F5TEX1LAA1 · Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
07:21 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -108 / U -104)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.95 8.0 OVER +0.95
totals_xgb 9.14 8.0 OVER +1.14
totals_ridge 9.09 8.0 OVER +1.09

CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d)

Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.

ModelnCLV (cents)±SEM
ml_logit_baseline289-0.22±0.13
ml_lgbm289+0.02±0.13
ml_xgb162-0.21±0.15
ml_catboost162-0.23±0.15
ml_logit_blended210-0.23±0.13
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_aug_v1109+0.09±0.26
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_v188-0.32±0.19
ml_lgbm_walkforward_v188-0.13±0.19
ml_logit_all_l30d28-0.27±0.46
ml_lr3134-0.26±0.22
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.