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ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated
Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.
Last updated 2:17 PM ET · May 25 · auto-refreshes hourly 9:30 AM – 6:30 PM ET
Date: 2026-05-23 · 14 games · primary model marked with *
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
01:11 PM ET
St. Louis Cardinals (away) · Kyle Leahy · Open -102 / Curr -102 (Pinnacle)
Cincinnati Reds (home) · Chase Petty · Open -106 / Curr -106 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
6-7
St. Louis Cardinals (away) -102 / -102
-121
-200
+98c
ml_lgbm
6-7
St. Louis Cardinals (away) -102 / -102
-101
-106
+4c
ml_xgb
6-7
St. Louis Cardinals (away) -102 / -102
+105
-107
+5c
ml_catboost
6-7
St. Louis Cardinals (away) -102 / -102
+106
-125
+23c
ml_logit_blended
7-6
Cincinnati Reds (home) -106 / -106
-136
-131
+24c
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
02:21 PM ET
Houston Astros (away) · Kai-Wei Teng · Open +137 / Curr +134 (Pinnacle)
Chicago Cubs (home) · Colin Rea · Open -152 / Curr -147 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
3-0
Houston Astros (away) +137 / +134
+110
+104
+33c
ml_lgbm
3-0
Houston Astros (away) +137 / +134
+129
+115
+22c
ml_xgb
3-0
Houston Astros (away) +137 / +134
+135
-107
+44c
ml_catboost
3-0
Houston Astros (away) +137 / +134
+130
-100
+37c
ml_logit_blended
3-0
Houston Astros (away) +137 / +134
+131
+131
+6c
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays
03:08 PM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) · Paul Skenes · Open -145 / Curr -152 (Pinnacle)
Toronto Blue Jays (home) · Patrick Corbin · Open +131 / Curr +139 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
2-5
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) -145 / -152
-113
-180
+35c
ml_lgbm
2-5
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) -145 / -152
-233
-175
+30c
ml_xgb
5-2
Toronto Blue Jays (home) +131 / +139
+123
+107
+24c
ml_catboost
2-5
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) -145 / -152
-161
-180
+35c
ml_logit_blended
2-5
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) -145 / -152
-146
—
—
Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants
04:06 PM ET
Chicago White Sox (away) · Bryan Hudson · Open +110 / Curr +492 (Pinnacle)
San Francisco Giants (home) · Adrian Houser · Open -120 / Curr -714 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
3-10
Chicago White Sox (away) +110 / +492
+114
+104
+6c
ml_lgbm
3-10
Chicago White Sox (away) +110 / +492
+114
-104
+14c
ml_xgb
3-10
Chicago White Sox (away) +110 / +492
+122
-107
+17c
ml_catboost
3-10
Chicago White Sox (away) +110 / +492
-120
-180
+90c
ml_logit_blended
10-3
San Francisco Giants (home) -120 / -714
-112
-129
+9c
Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies
04:06 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians (away) · Slade Cecconi · Open +171 / Curr +153 (Pinnacle)
Philadelphia Phillies (home) · Zack Wheeler · Open -192 / Curr -167 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
0-3
Cleveland Guardians (away) +171 / +153
+150
+115
+56c
ml_lgbm
0-3
Cleveland Guardians (away) +171 / +153
-101
-106
+77c
ml_xgb
0-3
Cleveland Guardians (away) +171 / +153
+113
-107
+78c
ml_catboost
0-3
Cleveland Guardians (away) +171 / +153
+122
-100
+71c
ml_logit_blended
0-3
Cleveland Guardians (away) +171 / +153
+164
+131
+40c
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
04:11 PM ET
New York Mets (away) · Freddy Peralta · Open +101 / Curr +104 (Pinnacle)
Miami Marlins (home) · Max Meyer · Open -112 / Curr -112 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
1-4
New York Mets (away) +101 / +104
-111
-180
+81c
ml_lgbm
1-4
New York Mets (away) +101 / +104
-101
-106
+7c
ml_xgb
1-4
New York Mets (away) +101 / +104
+127
-107
+8c
ml_catboost
1-4
New York Mets (away) +101 / +104
-104
-145
+46c
ml_logit_blended
4-1
Miami Marlins (home) -112 / -112
-123
-129
+17c
Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals
04:11 PM ET
Seattle Mariners (away) · George Kirby · Open -141 / Curr -119 (Pinnacle)
Kansas City Royals (home) · Stephen Kolek · Open +127 / Curr +110 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
5-0
Kansas City Royals (home) +127 / +110
+103
-104
+31c
ml_lgbm
5-0
Kansas City Royals (home) +127 / +110
+101
+106
+21c
ml_xgb
5-0
Kansas City Royals (home) +127 / +110
-110
+107
+20c
ml_catboost
0-5
Seattle Mariners (away) -141 / -119
-101
-145
+5c
ml_logit_blended
5-0
Kansas City Royals (home) +127 / +110
+105
+107
+20c
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox
04:11 PM ET
Minnesota Twins (away) · Taj Bradley · Open +103 / Curr -714 (Pinnacle)
Boston Red Sox (home) · Jovani Morán · Open -114 / Curr +531 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
4-2
Minnesota Twins (away) +103 / -714
+117
+104
-1c
ml_lgbm
4-2
Minnesota Twins (away) +103 / -714
-116
-108
+11c
ml_xgb
4-2
Minnesota Twins (away) +103 / -714
+101
-107
+10c
ml_catboost
4-2
Minnesota Twins (away) +103 / -714
+103
-145
+48c
ml_logit_blended
4-2
Minnesota Twins (away) +103 / -714
+111
-107
+10c
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
04:11 PM ET
Washington Nationals (away) · Jake Irvin · Open +166 / Curr -164 (Pinnacle)
Atlanta Braves (home) · Grant Holmes · Open -185 / Curr +134 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
2-0
Washington Nationals (away) +166 / -164
+131
+104
+62c
ml_lgbm
2-0
Washington Nationals (away) +166 / -164
-101
-106
+72c
ml_xgb
2-0
Washington Nationals (away) +166 / -164
+106
-107
+73c
ml_catboost
2-0
Washington Nationals (away) +166 / -164
+139
-100
+66c
ml_logit_blended
2-0
Washington Nationals (away) +166 / -164
+110
-107
+73c
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
07:16 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers (away) · Roki Sasaki · Open -123 / Curr +440 (Pinnacle)
Milwaukee Brewers (home) · Robert Gasser · Open +112 / Curr -588 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
3-11
Milwaukee Brewers (home) +112 / -588
-134
-104
+16c
ml_lgbm
3-11
Milwaukee Brewers (home) +112 / -588
+111
+106
+6c
ml_xgb
3-11
Milwaukee Brewers (home) +112 / -588
-115
+107
+5c
ml_catboost
3-11
Milwaukee Brewers (home) +112 / -588
-118
-100
+12c
ml_logit_blended
3-11
Milwaukee Brewers (home) +112 / -588
-134
-131
+43c
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
07:16 PM ET
St. Louis Cardinals (away) · Andre Pallante · Open -101 / Curr -200 (Pinnacle)
Cincinnati Reds (home) · Chris Paddack · Open -109 / Curr +164 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
8-1
St. Louis Cardinals (away) -101 / -200
+104
+103
-4c
ml_lgbm
8-1
St. Louis Cardinals (away) -101 / -200
-101
-105
+4c
ml_xgb
8-1
St. Louis Cardinals (away) -101 / -200
+111
-110
+9c
ml_catboost
8-1
St. Louis Cardinals (away) -101 / -200
+109
-104
+3c
ml_logit_blended
1-8
Cincinnati Reds (home) -109 / +164
-112
-131
+23c
Athletics @ San Diego Padres
09:41 PM ET
Athletics (away) · J.T. Ginn · Open -104 / Curr +612 (Pinnacle)
San Diego Padres (home) · Lucas Giolito · Open -106 / Curr -909 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
2-0
San Diego Padres (home) -106 / -909
-116
-104
-2c
ml_lgbm
0-2
Athletics (away) -104 / +612
+114
-104
0c
ml_xgb
0-2
Athletics (away) -104 / +612
+127
-107
+2c
ml_catboost
0-2
Athletics (away) -104 / +612
-101
-145
+41c
ml_logit_blended
0-2
Athletics (away) -104 / +612
-114
-107
+3c
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
10:06 PM ET
Texas Rangers (away) · Nathan Eovaldi · Open -128 / Curr +561 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Angels (home) · Walbert Ureña · Open +116 / Curr -833 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Walbert Ureña (home)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_lgbm
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_xgb
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_catboost
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_logit_blended
5-2
Los Angeles Angels (home) +116 / -833
+133
+117
-1c
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
10:11 PM ET
Colorado Rockies (away) · Michael Lorenzen · Open +150 / Curr +562 (Pinnacle)
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) · Zac Gallen · Open -167 / Curr -769 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
4-5
Colorado Rockies (away) +150 / +562
+114
+104
+46c
ml_lgbm
4-5
Colorado Rockies (away) +150 / +562
+114
-104
+54c
ml_xgb
4-5
Colorado Rockies (away) +150 / +562
+139
-107
+57c
ml_catboost
4-5
Colorado Rockies (away) +150 / +562
+148
-100
+50c
ml_logit_blended
4-5
Colorado Rockies (away) +150 / +562
+109
-107
+57c
Totals Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.
F STL 6 CIN 7 F5 STL 1 CIN 5
01:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.15
9.5
UNDER -0.35
totals_xgb
8.37
9.5
UNDER -1.13
totals_ridge
9.20
9.5
UNDER -0.30
F HOU 3 CHC 0 F5 HOU 3 CHC 0
02:21 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.18
7.5
OVER +0.68
totals_xgb
8.41
7.5
OVER +0.91
totals_ridge
8.91
7.5
OVER +1.41
F PIT 2 TOR 5 F5 PIT 0 TOR 1
03:08 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.18
7.5
OVER +0.68
totals_xgb
6.90
7.5
UNDER -0.60
totals_ridge
8.87
7.5
OVER +1.37
F CWS 3 SF 10 F5 CWS 3 SF 9
04:06 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.25
8.5
UNDER -0.25
totals_xgb
10.01
8.5
OVER +1.51
totals_ridge
8.68
8.5
OVER +0.18
F CLE 0 PHI 3 F5 CLE 0 PHI 2
04:06 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.51
7.0
OVER +1.51
totals_xgb
8.60
7.0
OVER +1.60
totals_ridge
9.04
7.0
OVER +2.04
F NYM 1 MIA 4 F5 NYM 0 MIA 4
04:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.31
8.0
OVER +0.31
totals_xgb
7.93
8.0
UNDER -0.07
totals_ridge
9.17
8.0
OVER +1.17
F SEA 0 KC 5 F5 SEA 0 KC 4
04:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.10
8.5
UNDER -0.40
totals_xgb
8.18
8.5
UNDER -0.32
totals_ridge
8.89
8.5
OVER +0.39
F MIN 4 BOS 2 F5 MIN 4 BOS 1
04:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.32
8.0
OVER +0.32
totals_xgb
7.93
8.0
UNDER -0.07
totals_ridge
9.22
8.0
OVER +1.22
F WSH 2 ATL 0 F5 WSH 2 ATL 0
04:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.74
9.0
UNDER -0.26
totals_xgb
9.26
9.0
OVER +0.26
totals_ridge
8.92
9.0
UNDER -0.08
F LAD 11 MIL 3 F5 LAD 4 MIL 3
07:16 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.13
9.0
UNDER -0.87
totals_xgb
7.91
9.0
UNDER -1.09
totals_ridge
8.75
9.0
UNDER -0.25
F STL 8 CIN 1 F5 STL 3 CIN 1
07:16 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
F OAK 0 SD 2 F5 OAK 0 SD 2
09:41 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.25
8.0
OVER +0.25
totals_xgb
8.54
8.0
OVER +0.54
totals_ridge
8.51
8.0
OVER +0.51
F TEX 2 LAA 5 F5 TEX 1 LAA 3
10:06 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
F COL 4 ARI 5 F5 COL 2 ARI 5
10:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.69
9.0
OVER +0.69
totals_xgb
9.17
9.0
OVER +0.17
totals_ridge
9.43
9.0
OVER +0.43
CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d) Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.
Model n CLV (cents) ±SEM ml_logit_baseline 289 -0.22 ±0.13 ml_lgbm 289 +0.02 ±0.13 ml_xgb 162 -0.21 ±0.15 ml_catboost 162 -0.23 ±0.15 ml_logit_blended 210 -0.23 ±0.13 ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_aug_v1 109 +0.09 ±0.26 ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_v1 88 -0.32 ±0.19 ml_lgbm_walkforward_v1 88 -0.13 ±0.19 ml_logit_all_l30d 28 -0.27 ±0.46 ml_lr3 134 -0.26 ±0.22
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days.
Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present).
Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal).
Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip).
Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current.
10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228).
This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.