ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

TodayTomorrow
Last updated 2:17 PM ET · May 25 · auto-refreshes hourly 9:30 AM – 6:30 PM ET
Pick date:Gotodaytomorrow
Date: 2026-05-22 · 14 games · primary model marked with *
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
02:21 PM ET
Houston Astros (away) · Spencer Arrighetti · Open +128 / Curr +125 (Pinnacle)
Chicago Cubs (home) · Jameson Taillon · Open -141 / Curr -135 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 4-2 Houston Astros (away) +128 / +125 +130 +103 +25c
ml_lgbm 4-2 Houston Astros (away) +128 / +125 +114 -103 +31c
ml_xgb 4-2 Houston Astros (away) +128 / +125 +129 -110 +38c
ml_catboost 4-2 Houston Astros (away) +128 / +125 +130 -104 +32c
ml_logit_blended 4-2 Houston Astros (away) +128 / +125 +136 +133 -5c
Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies
06:41 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians (away) · Gavin Williams · Open +154 / Curr +129 (Pinnacle)
Philadelphia Phillies (home) · Cristopher Sánchez · Open -172 / Curr -149 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-0 Cleveland Guardians (away) +154 / +129 +122 +103 +51c
ml_lgbm 1-0 Cleveland Guardians (away) +154 / +129 +114 -103 +57c
ml_xgb 1-0 Cleveland Guardians (away) +154 / +129 +116 -110 +64c
ml_catboost 1-0 Cleveland Guardians (away) +154 / +129 +118 -104 +58c
ml_logit_blended 1-0 Cleveland Guardians (away) +154 / +129 +121 +131 +23c
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
07:06 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays (away) · Nick Martinez · Open +133 / Curr +158 (Pinnacle)
New York Yankees (home) · Gerrit Cole · Open -147 / Curr -192 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Gerrit Cole (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 4-2 Tampa Bay Rays (away) +133 / +158 +106 -105 +38c
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays
07:08 PM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) · Bubba Chandler · Open +139 / Curr -108 (Pinnacle)
Toronto Blue Jays (home) · Kevin Gausman · Open -154 / Curr -108 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 2-6 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +139 / -108 +129 +103 +36c
ml_lgbm 2-6 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +139 / -108 -111 -105 +44c
ml_xgb 2-6 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +139 / -108 +131 -110 +49c
ml_catboost 2-6 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +139 / -108 -100 -156 +95c
ml_logit_blended 2-6 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +139 / -108 +140 +133 +6c
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
07:11 PM ET
New York Mets (away) · Tobias Myers · Open -123 / Curr +130 (Pinnacle)
Miami Marlins (home) · Eury Pérez · Open +111 / Curr -152 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 2-1 Miami Marlins (home) +111 / -152 -144 -111 +22c
ml_lgbm 2-1 Miami Marlins (home) +111 / -152 -153 -151 +62c
ml_xgb 2-1 Miami Marlins (home) +111 / -152 -145 +110 +1c
ml_catboost 2-1 Miami Marlins (home) +111 / -152 -160 +104 +7c
ml_logit_blended 2-1 Miami Marlins (home) +111 / -152 -119 -131 +42c
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox
07:11 PM ET
Minnesota Twins (away) · Connor Prielipp · Open +135 / Curr +275 (Pinnacle)
Boston Red Sox (home) · Payton Tolle · Open -149 / Curr -333 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Connor Prielipp (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 8-6 Minnesota Twins (away) +135 / +275 +107 -105 +40c
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
07:15 PM ET
Washington Nationals (away) · Richard Lovelady · Open +182 / Curr +143 (Pinnacle)
Atlanta Braves (home) · Bryce Elder · Open -204 / Curr -175 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 4-5 Washington Nationals (away) +182 / +143 +104 -105 +87c
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
07:16 PM ET
Detroit Tigers (away) · Jack Flaherty · Open +115 / Curr -213 (Pinnacle)
Baltimore Orioles (home) · Keegan Akin · Open -127 / Curr +180 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 4-7 Detroit Tigers (away) +115 / -213 +105 +103 +12c
ml_lgbm 4-7 Detroit Tigers (away) +115 / -213 +114 -103 +18c
ml_xgb 4-7 Detroit Tigers (away) +115 / -213 +138 -110 +25c
ml_catboost 4-7 Detroit Tigers (away) +115 / -213 +104 -156 +71c
ml_logit_blended 4-7 Detroit Tigers (away) +115 / -213 -109 -105 +20c
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
07:41 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers (away) · Justin Wrobleski · Open -110 / Curr +401 (Pinnacle)
Milwaukee Brewers (home) · Logan Henderson · Open +100 / Curr -556 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 5-1 Milwaukee Brewers (home) +100 / -556 -134 -103 +3c
ml_lgbm 5-1 Milwaukee Brewers (home) +100 / -556 -129 -114 +14c
ml_xgb 1-5 Los Angeles Dodgers (away) -110 / +401 +117 -110 +0c
ml_catboost 5-1 Milwaukee Brewers (home) +100 / -556 -146 +104 -4c
ml_logit_blended 5-1 Milwaukee Brewers (home) +100 / -556 -130 -133 +33c
Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals
07:41 PM ET
Seattle Mariners (away) · Logan Gilbert · Open -132 / Curr -119 (Pinnacle)
Kansas City Royals (home) · Noah Cameron · Open +120 / Curr -101 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 2-0 Seattle Mariners (away) -132 / -119 -107 -150 +18c
ml_lgbm 0-2 Kansas City Royals (home) +120 / -101 +109 +105 +15c
ml_xgb 0-2 Kansas City Royals (home) +120 / -101 -102 +110 +10c
ml_catboost 2-0 Seattle Mariners (away) -132 / -119 -107 -156 +24c
ml_logit_blended 0-2 Kansas City Royals (home) +120 / -101 +107 +105 +15c
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
09:39 PM ET
Texas Rangers (away) · Jacob deGrom · Open -161 / Curr +365 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Angels (home) · Grayson Rodriguez · Open +144 / Curr -500 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Grayson Rodriguez (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 9-6 Los Angeles Angels (home) +144 / -500 +133 +150 -6c
Athletics @ San Diego Padres
09:41 PM ET
Athletics (away) · Jeffrey Springs · Open +116 / Curr +486 (Pinnacle)
San Diego Padres (home) · Walker Buehler · Open -128 / Curr -714 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 3-7 Athletics (away) +116 / +486 +104 +103 +13c
ml_lgbm 3-7 Athletics (away) +116 / +486 -233 -233 +149c
ml_xgb 3-7 Athletics (away) +116 / +486 -118 -110 +26c
ml_catboost 3-7 Athletics (away) +116 / +486 -106 -156 +72c
ml_logit_blended 3-7 Athletics (away) +116 / +486 -114 -105 +21c
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
09:41 PM ET
Colorado Rockies (away) · Tomoyuki Sugano · Open +167 / Curr -417 (Pinnacle)
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) · Michael Soroka velo -1.29 · Open -189 / Curr +311 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 3-2 Colorado Rockies (away) +167 / -417 +127 +103 +64c
ml_lgbm 3-2 Colorado Rockies (away) +167 / -417 +153 +151 +16c
ml_xgb 3-2 Colorado Rockies (away) +167 / -417 +160 -110 +77c
ml_catboost 3-2 Colorado Rockies (away) +167 / -417 +195 -104 +71c
ml_logit_blended 3-2 Colorado Rockies (away) +167 / -417 +137 +133 +34c
Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants
10:16 PM ET
Chicago White Sox (away) · Davis Martin · Open -109 / Curr -118 (Pinnacle)
San Francisco Giants (home) · Trevor McDonald · Open -101 / Curr +100 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 4-9 San Francisco Giants (home) -101 / +100 -133 -103 +2c
ml_lgbm 9-4 Chicago White Sox (away) -109 / -118 -109 -105 -4c
ml_xgb 9-4 Chicago White Sox (away) -109 / -118 +105 -110 +1c
ml_catboost 9-4 Chicago White Sox (away) -109 / -118 -103 -156 +47c
ml_logit_blended 9-4 Chicago White Sox (away) -109 / -118 -107 -105 -3c

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

FHOU4CHC2 F5HOU4CHC0 · Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
02:21 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.0 (O -105 / U -108)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.28 7.0 OVER +1.28
totals_xgb 8.38 7.0 OVER +1.38
totals_ridge 8.87 7.0 OVER +1.87
FCLE1PHI0 F5CLE0PHI0 · Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies
06:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.0 (O -102 / U -112)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.37 7.0 OVER +1.37
totals_xgb 9.22 7.0 OVER +2.22
totals_ridge 9.03 7.0 OVER +2.03
FTB4NYY2 F5TB0NYY1 · Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
07:06 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FPIT2TOR6 F5PIT1TOR3 · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays
07:08 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -106 / U -108)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.26 8.0 OVER +0.26
totals_xgb 7.99 8.0 — -0.01
totals_ridge 9.02 8.0 OVER +1.02
FNYM1MIA2 F5NYM1MIA2 · New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
07:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -101 / U -114)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.76 8.0 OVER +0.76
totals_xgb 8.42 8.0 OVER +0.42
totals_ridge 9.14 8.0 OVER +1.14
FMIN8BOS6 F5MIN3BOS6 · Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox
07:11 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FWSH4ATL5 F5WSH0ATL0 · Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
07:15 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -116 / U +101)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 10.08 9.0 OVER +1.08
totals_xgb 10.84 9.0 OVER +1.84
totals_ridge 9.23 9.0 OVER +0.23
FDET4BAL7 F5DET4BAL6 · Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
07:16 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -109 / U -105)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.27 8.5 UNDER -0.23
totals_xgb 8.46 8.5 — -0.04
totals_ridge 8.86 8.5 OVER +0.36
FLAD1MIL5 F5LAD0MIL5 · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
07:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O +101 / U -116)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.12 8.5 UNDER -0.38
totals_xgb 9.54 8.5 OVER +1.04
totals_ridge 8.69 8.5 OVER +0.19
FSEA2KC0 F5SEA0KC0 · Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals
07:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -114 / U -101)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.46 8.0 OVER +0.46
totals_xgb 7.61 8.0 UNDER -0.39
totals_ridge 8.83 8.0 OVER +0.83
FTEX6LAA9 F5TEX3LAA6 · Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
09:39 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FOAK3SD7 F5OAK3SD3 · Athletics @ San Diego Padres
09:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -108 / U -108)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.66 8.0 OVER +0.66
totals_xgb 9.52 8.0 OVER +1.52
totals_ridge 8.43 8.0 OVER +0.43
FCOL3ARI2 F5COL1ARI2 · Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
09:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -118 / U +103)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.57 8.5 OVER +1.07
totals_xgb 8.32 8.5 UNDER -0.18
totals_ridge 9.41 8.5 OVER +0.91
FCWS9SF4 F5CWS9SF3 · Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants
10:16 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O +105 / U -120)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.32 7.5 OVER +0.82
totals_xgb 6.70 7.5 UNDER -0.80
totals_ridge 8.48 7.5 OVER +0.98

CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d)

Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.

ModelnCLV (cents)±SEM
ml_logit_baseline289-0.22±0.13
ml_lgbm289+0.02±0.13
ml_xgb162-0.21±0.15
ml_catboost162-0.23±0.15
ml_logit_blended210-0.23±0.13
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_aug_v1109+0.09±0.26
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_v188-0.32±0.19
ml_lgbm_walkforward_v188-0.13±0.19
ml_logit_all_l30d28-0.27±0.46
ml_lr3134-0.26±0.22
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.