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ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated
Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.
Last updated 2:17 PM ET · May 25 · auto-refreshes hourly 9:30 AM – 6:30 PM ET
Date: 2026-05-21 · 7 games · primary model marked with *
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
01:11 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians (away) · Joey Cantillo · Open +101 / Curr +107 (Pinnacle)
Detroit Tigers (home) · Casey Mize · Open -112 / Curr -116 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
3-1
Cleveland Guardians (away) +101 / +107
+107
+106
-5c
ml_lgbm
3-1
Cleveland Guardians (away) +101 / +107
-101
-102
+3c
ml_xgb
3-1
Cleveland Guardians (away) +101 / +107
-101
-103
+4c
ml_catboost
3-1
Cleveland Guardians (away) +101 / +107
+102
-133
+34c
ml_logit_blended
3-1
Cleveland Guardians (away) +101 / +107
+109
+106
-5c
ml_logit_all_l30d
3-1
Cleveland Guardians (away) +101 / +107
+116
+102
-1c
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
01:16 PM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) · Braxton Ashcraft · Open -120 / Curr -114 (Pinnacle)
St. Louis Cardinals (home) · Dustin May · Open +110 / Curr +104 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
2-6
St. Louis Cardinals (home) +110 / +104
-109
-106
+16c
ml_lgbm
2-6
St. Louis Cardinals (home) +110 / +104
+101
+102
+8c
ml_xgb
2-6
St. Louis Cardinals (home) +110 / +104
-131
+103
+7c
ml_catboost
6-2
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) -120 / -114
-105
-133
+13c
ml_logit_blended
2-6
St. Louis Cardinals (home) +110 / +104
+109
-106
+16c
ml_logit_all_l30d
2-6
St. Louis Cardinals (home) +110 / +104
-113
-102
+12c
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
04:06 PM ET
New York Mets (away) · David Peterson · Open -109 / Curr -217 (Pinnacle)
Washington Nationals (home) · Cade Cavalli · Open -101 / Curr +174 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
1-2
Washington Nationals (home) -101 / +174
+104
-100
-1c
ml_lgbm
1-2
Washington Nationals (home) -101 / +174
+101
+102
-3c
ml_xgb
1-2
Washington Nationals (home) -101 / +174
-116
+103
-4c
ml_catboost
1-2
Washington Nationals (home) -101 / +174
-174
-100
-1c
ml_logit_blended
1-2
Washington Nationals (home) -101 / +174
-132
-141
+40c
ml_logit_all_l30d
1-2
Washington Nationals (home) -101 / +174
-154
-122
+21c
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
06:41 PM ET
Atlanta Braves (away) · Spencer Strider · Open -135 / Curr -256 (Pinnacle)
Miami Marlins (home) · Sandy Alcantara · Open +122 / Curr +203 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
3-9
Miami Marlins (home) +122 / +203
-107
-106
+28c
ml_lgbm
3-9
Miami Marlins (home) +122 / +203
-127
-114
+36c
ml_xgb
3-9
Miami Marlins (home) +122 / +203
-100
+103
+19c
ml_catboost
3-9
Miami Marlins (home) +122 / +203
-114
-100
+22c
ml_logit_blended
3-9
Miami Marlins (home) +122 / +203
+105
-106
+28c
ml_logit_all_l30d
3-9
Miami Marlins (home) +122 / +203
-103
-102
+24c
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
07:05 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays (away) · Braydon Fisher · Open +130 / Curr -143 (Pinnacle)
New York Yankees (home) · Carlos Rodón · Open -141 / Curr +122 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
2-0
Toronto Blue Jays (away) +130 / -143
+120
+106
+24c
ml_lgbm
0-2
New York Yankees (home) -141 / +122
-153
-152
+11c
ml_xgb
2-0
Toronto Blue Jays (away) +130 / -143
+146
-103
+33c
ml_catboost
2-0
Toronto Blue Jays (away) +130 / -143
+164
-100
+30c
ml_logit_blended
0-2
New York Yankees (home) -141 / +122
-133
-141
+0c
ml_logit_all_l30d
2-0
Toronto Blue Jays (away) +130 / -143
+178
+122
+8c
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
09:39 PM ET
Athletics (away) · Luis Severino · Open +100 / Curr -208 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Angels (home) · José Soriano · Open -110 / Curr +162 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
2-3
Los Angeles Angels (home) -110 / +162
-117
-106
-4c
ml_lgbm
3-2
Athletics (away) +100 / -208
-102
-102
+2c
ml_xgb
3-2
Athletics (away) +100 / -208
+107
-103
+3c
ml_catboost
3-2
Athletics (away) +100 / -208
-118
-160
+60c
ml_logit_blended
2-3
Los Angeles Angels (home) -110 / +162
-101
-106
-4c
ml_logit_all_l30d
3-2
Athletics (away) +100 / -208
-100
+102
-2c
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
09:41 PM ET
Colorado Rockies (away) · Zach Agnos · Open +170 / Curr +276 (Pinnacle)
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) · Eduardo Rodriguez · Open -189 / Curr -385 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
1-2
Colorado Rockies (away) +170 / +276
+145
+106
+64c
ml_lgbm
1-2
Colorado Rockies (away) +170 / +276
+129
+114
+56c
ml_xgb
1-2
Colorado Rockies (away) +170 / +276
+141
-103
+73c
ml_catboost
1-2
Colorado Rockies (away) +170 / +276
+162
-100
+70c
ml_logit_blended
1-2
Colorado Rockies (away) +170 / +276
+152
+141
+29c
ml_logit_all_l30d
1-2
Colorado Rockies (away) +170 / +276
+156
+122
+48c
Totals Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.
F CLE 3 DET 1 F5 CLE 2 DET 0
01:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.66
7.5
OVER +1.16
totals_xgb
8.18
7.5
OVER +0.68
totals_ridge
8.90
7.5
OVER +1.40
F PIT 6 STL 2 F5 PIT 2 STL 1
01:16 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.16
8.0
OVER +0.16
totals_xgb
7.40
8.0
UNDER -0.60
totals_ridge
9.00
8.0
OVER +1.00
F NYM 2 WSH 1 F5 NYM 2 WSH 1
04:06 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.74
8.5
OVER +0.24
totals_xgb
8.29
8.5
UNDER -0.21
totals_ridge
9.29
8.5
OVER +0.79
F ATL 9 MIA 3 F5 ATL 5 MIA 2
06:41 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.63
7.5
OVER +1.13
totals_xgb
8.30
7.5
OVER +0.80
totals_ridge
9.11
7.5
OVER +1.61
F TOR 2 NYY 0 F5 TOR 1 NYY 0
07:05 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.05
8.5
UNDER -0.45
totals_xgb
8.25
8.5
UNDER -0.25
totals_ridge
8.91
8.5
OVER +0.41
F OAK 3 LAA 2 F5 OAK 0 LAA 2
09:39 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.51
8.5
— +0.01
totals_xgb
7.34
8.5
UNDER -1.16
totals_ridge
9.12
8.5
OVER +0.62
F COL 1 ARI 2 F5 COL 0 ARI 0
09:41 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
10.19
9.0
OVER +1.19
totals_xgb
11.06
9.0
OVER +2.06
totals_ridge
9.59
9.0
OVER +0.59
CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d) Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.
Model n CLV (cents) ±SEM ml_logit_baseline 289 -0.22 ±0.13 ml_lgbm 289 +0.02 ±0.13 ml_xgb 162 -0.21 ±0.15 ml_catboost 162 -0.23 ±0.15 ml_logit_blended 210 -0.23 ±0.13 ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_aug_v1 109 +0.09 ±0.26 ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_v1 88 -0.32 ±0.19 ml_lgbm_walkforward_v1 88 -0.13 ±0.19 ml_logit_all_l30d 28 -0.22 ±0.45 ml_lr3 134 -0.26 ±0.22
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days.
Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present).
Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal).
Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip).
Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current.
10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228).
This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.