ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

TodayTomorrow
Last updated 2:17 PM ET · May 25 · auto-refreshes hourly 9:30 AM – 6:30 PM ET
Pick date:Gotodaytomorrow
Date: 2026-05-20 · 15 games · primary model marked with *
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
01:06 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds (away) · Andrew Abbott · Open +123 / Curr +136 (Pinnacle)
Philadelphia Phillies (home) · Aaron Nola · Open -135 / Curr -147 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 9-4 Cincinnati Reds (away) +123 / +136 +104 +106 +17c
ml_lgbm 9-4 Cincinnati Reds (away) +123 / +136 +114 +114 +9c
ml_xgb 9-4 Cincinnati Reds (away) +123 / +136 +134 +105 +18c
ml_catboost 9-4 Cincinnati Reds (away) +123 / +136 +108 -100 +23c
ml_logit_blended 9-4 Cincinnati Reds (away) +123 / +136 -104 +122 +1c
ml_logit_all_l30d 9-4 Cincinnati Reds (away) +123 / +136 -107 +102 +21c
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
01:11 PM ET
Baltimore Orioles (away) · Shane Baz · Open +102 / Curr +106 (Pinnacle)
Tampa Bay Rays (home) · Steven Matz · Open -112 / Curr -115 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 3-5 Baltimore Orioles (away) +102 / +106 +104 +106 -4c
ml_lgbm 5-3 Tampa Bay Rays (home) -112 / -115 -127 -114 +2c
ml_xgb 3-5 Baltimore Orioles (away) +102 / +106 +140 +105 -3c
ml_catboost 3-5 Baltimore Orioles (away) +102 / +106 +144 +102 0c
ml_logit_blended 5-3 Tampa Bay Rays (home) -112 / -115 +100 -122 +9c
ml_logit_all_l30d 3-5 Baltimore Orioles (away) +102 / +106 +104 +102 +0c
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
01:41 PM ET
Houston Astros (away) · Mike Burrows · Open +130 / Curr +128 (Pinnacle)
Minnesota Twins (home) · Joe Ryan · Open -145 / Curr -139 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-4 Houston Astros (away) +130 / +128 +131 +106 +24c
ml_lgbm 4-1 Minnesota Twins (home) -145 / -139 -153 -153 +8c
ml_xgb 1-4 Houston Astros (away) +130 / +128 +137 +105 +25c
ml_catboost 1-4 Houston Astros (away) +130 / +128 +142 +102 +28c
ml_logit_blended 4-1 Minnesota Twins (home) -145 / -139 -133 -145 +0c
ml_logit_all_l30d 1-4 Houston Astros (away) +130 / +128 +121 +122 +8c
Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies
03:10 PM ET
Texas Rangers (away) · Jack Leiter · Open -128 / Curr -109 (Pinnacle)
Colorado Rockies (home) · Kyle Freeland velo -1.61 · Open +116 / Curr -115 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 5-4 Texas Rangers (away) -128 / -109 -117 -150 +22c
ml_lgbm 4-5 Colorado Rockies (home) +116 / -115 -114 -114 +30c
ml_xgb 4-5 Colorado Rockies (home) +116 / -115 -107 -105 +21c
ml_catboost 5-4 Texas Rangers (away) -128 / -109 -112 -125 -3c
ml_logit_blended 4-5 Colorado Rockies (home) +116 / -115 -106 -122 +38c
ml_logit_all_l30d 4-5 Colorado Rockies (home) +116 / -115 -112 -102 +18c
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
03:41 PM ET
San Francisco Giants (away) · Tyler Mahle · Open +113 / Curr +118 (Pinnacle)
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) · Merrill Kelly · Open -125 / Curr -127 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 3-6 San Francisco Giants (away) +113 / +118 +123 +106 +7c
ml_lgbm 3-6 San Francisco Giants (away) +113 / +118 +114 +114 -1c
ml_xgb 3-6 San Francisco Giants (away) +113 / +118 +131 +105 +8c
ml_catboost 3-6 San Francisco Giants (away) +113 / +118 -100 -125 +38c
ml_logit_blended 6-3 Arizona Diamondbacks (home) -125 / -127 -123 -122 -3c
ml_logit_all_l30d 3-6 San Francisco Giants (away) +113 / +118 +116 +102 +11c
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
04:11 PM ET
Chicago White Sox (away) · Sean Burke · Open +131 / Curr -101 (Pinnacle)
Seattle Mariners (home) · Emerson Hancock · Open -145 / Curr -119 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 4-5 Chicago White Sox (away) +131 / -101 +105 +106 +25c
ml_lgbm 4-5 Chicago White Sox (away) +131 / -101 -109 -101 +32c
ml_xgb 4-5 Chicago White Sox (away) +131 / -101 +108 +105 +26c
ml_catboost 4-5 Chicago White Sox (away) +131 / -101 +102 -125 +56c
ml_logit_blended 5-4 Seattle Mariners (home) -145 / -119 -131 -145 +0c
ml_logit_all_l30d 4-5 Chicago White Sox (away) +131 / -101 +115 +102 +29c
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
06:41 PM ET
Atlanta Braves (away) · Chris Sale · Open -192 / Curr -588 (Pinnacle)
Miami Marlins (home) · Janson Junk · Open +171 / Curr +440 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-9 Miami Marlins (home) +171 / +440 +122 +150 +21c
ml_lgbm 1-9 Miami Marlins (home) +171 / +440 +101 +101 +70c
ml_xgb 1-9 Miami Marlins (home) +171 / +440 +104 -105 +76c
ml_catboost 1-9 Miami Marlins (home) +171 / +440 +110 +125 +46c
ml_logit_blended 1-9 Miami Marlins (home) +171 / +440 +132 -100 +71c
ml_logit_all_l30d 1-9 Miami Marlins (home) +171 / +440 +101 -102 +73c
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
06:41 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians (away) · Tanner Bibee · Open -116 / Curr -118 (Pinnacle)
Detroit Tigers (home) · Open +107 / Curr -103 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 2-3 Detroit Tigers (home) +107 / -103 +100 -122 +29c
ml_logit_all_l30d 2-3 Detroit Tigers (home) +107 / -103 +115 -102 +9c
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
06:46 PM ET
New York Mets (away) · Zach Thornton · Open -119 / Curr +283 (Pinnacle)
Washington Nationals (home) · Zack Littell · Open +108 / Curr -370 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Zach Thornton (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 8-4 Washington Nationals (home) +108 / -370 -115 -122 +30c
ml_logit_all_l30d 8-4 Washington Nationals (home) +108 / -370 -123 -122 +30c
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
07:06 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays (away) · Trey Yesavage · Open +140 / Curr -667 (Pinnacle)
New York Yankees (home) · Cam Schlittler · Open -154 / Curr +501 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 2-1 Toronto Blue Jays (away) +140 / -667 +125 +106 +34c
ml_lgbm 1-2 New York Yankees (home) -154 / +501 -153 -153 -1c
ml_xgb 2-1 Toronto Blue Jays (away) +140 / -667 +142 +105 +35c
ml_catboost 2-1 Toronto Blue Jays (away) +140 / -667 +214 +102 +38c
ml_logit_blended 2-1 Toronto Blue Jays (away) +140 / -667 +171 +145 -5c
ml_logit_all_l30d 2-1 Toronto Blue Jays (away) +140 / -667 +162 +122 +18c
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
07:41 PM ET
Boston Red Sox (away) · Connelly Early · Open +103 / Curr +148 (Pinnacle)
Kansas City Royals (home) · Michael Wacha · Open -114 / Curr -175 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 4-3 Boston Red Sox (away) +103 / +148 -112 -140 +43c
ml_lgbm 3-4 Kansas City Royals (home) -114 / -175 -114 -114 +0c
ml_xgb 4-3 Boston Red Sox (away) +103 / +148 +120 +105 -2c
ml_catboost 4-3 Boston Red Sox (away) +103 / +148 +119 +102 +1c
ml_logit_blended 3-4 Kansas City Royals (home) -114 / -175 -107 -122 +8c
ml_logit_all_l30d 3-4 Kansas City Royals (home) -114 / -175 -132 -122 +9c
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
07:41 PM ET
Milwaukee Brewers (away) · Kyle Harrison · Open +100 / Curr +103 (Pinnacle)
Chicago Cubs (home) · Edward Cabrera · Open -110 / Curr -111 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-5 Chicago Cubs (home) -110 / -111 -132 -106 -4c
ml_lgbm 0-5 Chicago Cubs (home) -110 / -111 -114 -114 +4c
ml_xgb 5-0 Milwaukee Brewers (away) +100 / +103 +128 +105 -5c
ml_catboost 5-0 Milwaukee Brewers (away) +100 / +103 +134 +102 -2c
ml_logit_blended 0-5 Chicago Cubs (home) -110 / -111 -127 -145 +35c
ml_logit_all_l30d 0-5 Chicago Cubs (home) -110 / -111 -134 -122 +12c
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
07:46 PM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) · Carmen Mlodzinski · Open +105 / Curr +102 (Pinnacle)
St. Louis Cardinals (home) · Michael McGreevy · Open -115 / Curr -110 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 7-0 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +105 / +102 +100 +106 -1c
ml_lgbm 7-0 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +105 / +102 -101 -101 +6c
ml_xgb 7-0 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +105 / +102 +108 +105 +0c
ml_catboost 7-0 Pittsburgh Pirates (away) +105 / +102 +105 -103 +8c
ml_logit_blended 0-7 St. Louis Cardinals (home) -115 / -110 -107 -122 +7c
ml_logit_all_l30d 0-7 St. Louis Cardinals (home) -115 / -110 -124 -122 +7c
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
08:41 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers (away) · Shohei Ohtani · Open -164 / Curr -189 (Pinnacle)
San Diego Padres (home) · Randy Vásquez · Open +146 / Curr +172 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-4 San Diego Padres (home) +146 / +172 +112 +140 +6c
ml_lgbm 0-4 San Diego Padres (home) +146 / +172 +101 +101 +45c
ml_xgb 0-4 San Diego Padres (home) +146 / +172 -108 -105 +51c
ml_catboost 0-4 San Diego Padres (home) +146 / +172 +114 +125 +21c
ml_logit_blended 0-4 San Diego Padres (home) +146 / +172 +118 -100 +46c
ml_logit_all_l30d 0-4 San Diego Padres (home) +146 / +172 -115 -102 +48c
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
09:39 PM ET
Athletics (away) · Aaron Civale · Open -118 / Curr -333 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Angels (home) · Jack Kochanowicz · Open +107 / Curr +244 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 6-5 Athletics (away) -118 / -333 -107 -125 +7c
ml_lgbm 5-6 Los Angeles Angels (home) +107 / +244 +114 +109 -2c
ml_xgb 5-6 Los Angeles Angels (home) +107 / +244 -102 -105 +12c
ml_catboost 6-5 Athletics (away) -118 / -333 -120 -125 +7c
ml_logit_blended 5-6 Los Angeles Angels (home) +107 / +244 +106 -122 +29c
ml_logit_all_l30d 5-6 Los Angeles Angels (home) +107 / +244 +103 -102 +9c

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

FCIN9PHI4 F5CIN4PHI1 · Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
01:06 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 10.0 (O +100 / U -115)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.23 10.0 UNDER -0.77
totals_xgb 9.88 10.0 UNDER -0.12
totals_ridge 9.05 10.0 UNDER -0.95
FBAL3TB5 F5BAL1TB1 · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
01:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -105 / U -110)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.03 8.5 OVER +0.53
totals_xgb 8.85 8.5 OVER +0.35
totals_ridge 8.71 8.5 OVER +0.21
FHOU1MIN4 F5HOU1MIN4 · Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
01:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -105 / U -109)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.54 8.0 OVER +0.54
totals_xgb 8.70 8.0 OVER +0.70
totals_ridge 9.14 8.0 OVER +1.14
FTEX5COL4 F5TEX3COL4 · Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies
03:10 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 10.5 (O -110 / U -104)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.90 10.5 UNDER -0.60
totals_xgb 12.37 10.5 OVER +1.87
totals_ridge 10.60 10.5 OVER +0.10
FSF3ARI6 F5SF3ARI6 · San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
03:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -105 / U -109)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.56 9.0 OVER +0.56
totals_xgb 9.74 9.0 OVER +0.74
totals_ridge 9.52 9.0 OVER +0.52
FCWS4SEA5 F5CWS2SEA2 · Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
04:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -110 / U -104)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.04 7.5 OVER +0.54
totals_xgb 7.16 7.5 UNDER -0.34
totals_ridge 8.20 7.5 OVER +0.70
FATL9MIA1 F5ATL3MIA1 · Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
06:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O +101 / U -115)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.50 7.5 OVER +1.00
totals_xgb 8.70 7.5 OVER +1.20
totals_ridge 9.15 7.5 OVER +1.65
FCLE3DET2 F5CLE0DET0 · Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
06:41 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FNYM4WSH8 F5NYM2WSH4 · New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
06:46 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FTOR2NYY1 F5TOR0NYY0 · Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
07:06 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -114 / U +100)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.43 8.0 OVER +0.43
totals_xgb 9.22 8.0 OVER +1.22
totals_ridge 9.13 8.0 OVER +1.13
FBOS4KC3 F5BOS2KC3 · Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
07:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -108 / U -106)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.82 8.0 OVER +0.82
totals_xgb 9.13 8.0 OVER +1.13
totals_ridge 9.05 8.0 OVER +1.05
FMIL5CHC0 F5MIL4CHC0 · Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
07:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 6.5 (O -106 / U -106)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.12 6.5 OVER +1.62
totals_xgb 7.80 6.5 OVER +1.30
totals_ridge 8.75 6.5 OVER +2.25
FPIT7STL0 F5PIT2STL0 · Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
07:46 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -101 / U -114)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.05 8.0 OVER +1.05
totals_xgb 9.26 8.0 OVER +1.26
totals_ridge 9.02 8.0 OVER +1.02
FLAD4SD0 F5LAD3SD0 · Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
08:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.0 (O -119 / U +104)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.09 7.0 OVER +1.09
totals_xgb 8.93 7.0 OVER +1.93
totals_ridge 8.61 7.0 OVER +1.61
FOAK6LAA5 F5OAK3LAA5 · Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
09:39 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.5 (O -103 / U -111)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.25 9.5 UNDER -0.25
totals_xgb 10.09 9.5 OVER +0.59
totals_ridge 9.21 9.5 UNDER -0.29

CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d)

Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.

ModelnCLV (cents)±SEM
ml_logit_baseline289-0.22±0.13
ml_lgbm289+0.02±0.13
ml_xgb162-0.21±0.15
ml_catboost162-0.23±0.15
ml_logit_blended210-0.24±0.13
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_aug_v1109+0.09±0.26
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_v188-0.32±0.19
ml_lgbm_walkforward_v188-0.13±0.19
ml_logit_all_l30d28-0.22±0.45
ml_lr3134-0.26±0.22
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.