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ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated
Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.
Last updated 2:17 PM ET · May 25 · auto-refreshes hourly 9:30 AM – 6:30 PM ET
Date: 2026-05-19 · 15 games · primary model marked with *
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
04:11 PM ET
Atlanta Braves (away) · Martín Pérez · Open -130 / Curr -108 (Pinnacle)
Miami Marlins (home) · Braxton Garrett · Open +118 / Curr -112 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Braxton Garrett (home)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_lgbm
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_xgb
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_catboost
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_logit_blended
4-8
Miami Marlins (home) +118 / -112
-124
-154
+72c
ml_logit_all_l30d
4-8
Miami Marlins (home) +118 / -112
+115
-114
+32c
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
06:41 PM ET
Baltimore Orioles (away) · Kyle Bradish · Open +102 / Curr +127 (Pinnacle)
Tampa Bay Rays (home) · Griffin Jax velo -1.12 · Open -114 / Curr -154 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
4-1
Tampa Bay Rays (home) -114 / -154
-119
-108
-5c
ml_lgbm
1-4
Baltimore Orioles (away) +102 / +127
-138
-118
+20c
ml_xgb
4-1
Tampa Bay Rays (home) -114 / -154
+105
-113
-1c
ml_catboost
1-4
Baltimore Orioles (away) +102 / +127
+111
+105
-3c
ml_logit_blended
4-1
Tampa Bay Rays (home) -114 / -154
-125
-156
+42c
ml_logit_all_l30d
4-1
Tampa Bay Rays (home) -114 / -154
-113
-114
+0c
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
06:41 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds (away) · Chase Burns · Open +119 / Curr -167 (Pinnacle)
Philadelphia Phillies (home) · Jesús Luzardo · Open -132 / Curr +138 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
4-1
Cincinnati Reds (away) +119 / -167
+112
+108
+11c
ml_lgbm
4-1
Cincinnati Reds (away) +119 / -167
-104
-101
+20c
ml_xgb
4-1
Cincinnati Reds (away) +119 / -167
+137
+113
+6c
ml_catboost
4-1
Cincinnati Reds (away) +119 / -167
-120
-100
+19c
ml_logit_blended
1-4
Philadelphia Phillies (home) -132 / +138
+113
-136
+4c
ml_logit_all_l30d
4-1
Cincinnati Reds (away) +119 / -167
-128
+114
+5c
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
06:41 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians (away) · Parker Messick · Open -120 / Curr +115 (Pinnacle)
Detroit Tigers (home) · Keider Montero · Open +110 / Curr -139 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
3-4
Detroit Tigers (home) +110 / -139
-110
-108
+18c
ml_lgbm
3-4
Detroit Tigers (home) +110 / -139
+104
+101
+9c
ml_xgb
3-4
Detroit Tigers (home) +110 / -139
-125
-113
+23c
ml_catboost
3-4
Detroit Tigers (home) +110 / -139
+109
-100
+10c
ml_logit_blended
3-4
Detroit Tigers (home) +110 / -139
+108
-136
+46c
ml_logit_all_l30d
3-4
Detroit Tigers (home) +110 / -139
-102
-114
+24c
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
06:46 PM ET
New York Mets (away) · Nolan McLean · Open -149 / Curr -417 (Pinnacle)
Washington Nationals (home) · Foster Griffin · Open +136 / Curr +335 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Foster Griffin (home)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_lgbm
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_xgb
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_catboost
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_logit_blended
9-6
Washington Nationals (home) +136 / +335
-104
-136
+72c
ml_logit_all_l30d
9-6
Washington Nationals (home) +136 / +335
-123
-123
+59c
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
07:06 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays (away) · Dylan Cease · Open +123 / Curr +116 (Pinnacle)
New York Yankees (home) · Will Warren · Open -135 / Curr -135 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
4-5
Toronto Blue Jays (away) +123 / +116
+102
+108
+15c
ml_lgbm
4-5
Toronto Blue Jays (away) +123 / +116
-104
-101
+24c
ml_xgb
4-5
Toronto Blue Jays (away) +123 / +116
+122
+113
+10c
ml_catboost
4-5
Toronto Blue Jays (away) +123 / +116
+115
+105
+18c
ml_logit_blended
5-4
New York Yankees (home) -135 / -135
-118
-136
+1c
ml_logit_all_l30d
4-5
Toronto Blue Jays (away) +123 / +116
+105
+114
+9c
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
07:40 PM ET
Boston Red Sox (away) · Ranger Suarez · Open -122 / Curr +143 (Pinnacle)
Kansas City Royals (home) · Bailey Falter · Open +113 / Curr -175 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
1-7
Kansas City Royals (home) +113 / -175
+105
-108
+21c
ml_lgbm
1-7
Kansas City Royals (home) +113 / -175
-167
-154
+67c
ml_xgb
1-7
Kansas City Royals (home) +113 / -175
-118
-113
+26c
ml_catboost
1-7
Kansas City Royals (home) +113 / -175
-124
-105
+18c
ml_logit_blended
1-7
Kansas City Royals (home) +113 / -175
-101
-136
+49c
ml_logit_all_l30d
1-7
Kansas City Royals (home) +113 / -175
-114
-114
+27c
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
07:41 PM ET
Houston Astros (away) · Jason Alexander · Open +123 / Curr -233 (Pinnacle)
Minnesota Twins (home) · Zebby Matthews · Open -135 / Curr +186 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
2-1
Houston Astros (away) +123 / -233
+122
+108
+15c
ml_lgbm
2-1
Houston Astros (away) +123 / -233
+112
-101
+24c
ml_xgb
2-1
Houston Astros (away) +123 / -233
+129
+113
+10c
ml_catboost
2-1
Houston Astros (away) +123 / -233
+142
+105
+18c
ml_logit_blended
1-2
Minnesota Twins (home) -135 / +186
-141
-156
+20c
ml_logit_all_l30d
2-1
Houston Astros (away) +123 / -233
-103
+114
+9c
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
07:41 PM ET
Milwaukee Brewers (away) · Jacob Misiorowski · Open -109 / Curr -125 (Pinnacle)
Chicago Cubs (home) · Ben Brown · Open -101 / Curr +103 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
2-5
Chicago Cubs (home) -101 / +103
-109
-108
+7c
ml_lgbm
5-2
Milwaukee Brewers (away) -109 / -125
-119
-110
+2c
ml_xgb
2-5
Chicago Cubs (home) -101 / +103
-111
-113
+12c
ml_catboost
2-5
Chicago Cubs (home) -101 / +103
-113
-105
+4c
ml_logit_blended
2-5
Chicago Cubs (home) -101 / +103
-127
-156
+55c
ml_logit_all_l30d
2-5
Chicago Cubs (home) -101 / +103
-124
-123
+22c
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
07:46 PM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) · Mitch Keller · Open -106 / Curr -103 (Pinnacle)
St. Louis Cardinals (home) · Matthew Liberatore · Open -104 / Curr -114 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
9-6
St. Louis Cardinals (home) -104 / -114
-109
-108
+4c
ml_lgbm
9-6
St. Louis Cardinals (home) -104 / -114
+104
+101
-5c
ml_xgb
9-6
St. Louis Cardinals (home) -104 / -114
-105
-113
+9c
ml_catboost
9-6
St. Louis Cardinals (home) -104 / -114
-108
-105
+1c
ml_logit_blended
9-6
St. Louis Cardinals (home) -104 / -114
+100
-136
+32c
ml_logit_all_l30d
9-6
St. Louis Cardinals (home) -104 / -114
-113
-114
+10c
Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies
08:41 PM ET
Texas Rangers (away) · Tyler Alexander · Open -103 / Curr -101 (Pinnacle)
Colorado Rockies (home) · Sammy Peralta · Open -105 / Curr -108 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
10-0
Texas Rangers (away) -103 / -101
-117
-133
+30c
ml_lgbm
10-0
Texas Rangers (away) -103 / -101
-104
-101
-2c
ml_xgb
0-10
Colorado Rockies (home) -105 / -108
-133
-113
+7c
ml_catboost
0-10
Colorado Rockies (home) -105 / -108
-106
-105
0c
ml_logit_blended
0-10
Colorado Rockies (home) -105 / -108
-102
-136
+31c
ml_logit_all_l30d
0-10
Colorado Rockies (home) -105 / -108
+100
-114
+9c
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
09:39 PM ET
Athletics (away) · Jacob Lopez · Open +113 / Curr -417 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Angels (home) · Reid Detmers · Open -125 / Curr +314 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
14-6
Athletics (away) +113 / -417
+113
+108
+5c
ml_lgbm
14-6
Athletics (away) +113 / -417
-104
-101
+14c
ml_xgb
14-6
Athletics (away) +113 / -417
+114
+113
+0c
ml_catboost
14-6
Athletics (away) +113 / -417
+108
+105
+8c
ml_logit_blended
6-14
Los Angeles Angels (home) -125 / +314
-103
-136
+11c
ml_logit_all_l30d
14-6
Athletics (away) +113 / -417
-104
+114
-1c
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
09:41 PM ET
Chicago White Sox (away) · Anthony Kay · Open +131 / Curr +118 (Pinnacle)
Seattle Mariners (home) · Bryce Miller · Open -145 / Curr -149 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Anthony Kay (away)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_lgbm
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_xgb
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_catboost
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_logit_blended
1-2
Seattle Mariners (home) -145 / -149
-123
-146
+1c
ml_logit_all_l30d
2-1
Chicago White Sox (away) +131 / +118
+117
+114
+17c
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
09:41 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers (away) · Emmet Sheehan · Open -147 / Curr -213 (Pinnacle)
San Diego Padres (home) · Griffin Canning · Open +134 / Curr +167 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
4-5
San Diego Padres (home) +134 / +167
+100
-108
+42c
ml_lgbm
4-5
San Diego Padres (home) +134 / +167
+104
+101
+33c
ml_xgb
4-5
San Diego Padres (home) +134 / +167
-101
-113
+47c
ml_catboost
4-5
San Diego Padres (home) +134 / +167
+115
-100
+34c
ml_logit_blended
4-5
San Diego Padres (home) +134 / +167
+115
-112
+46c
ml_logit_all_l30d
4-5
San Diego Padres (home) +134 / +167
-110
-114
+48c
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
09:41 PM ET
San Francisco Giants (away) · Landen Roupp · Open +104 / Curr -333 (Pinnacle)
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) · Ryne Nelson · Open -115 / Curr +256 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
3-5
San Francisco Giants (away) +104 / -333
+114
+108
-4c
ml_lgbm
5-3
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) -115 / +256
-175
-154
+39c
ml_xgb
5-3
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) -115 / +256
+108
-113
-2c
ml_catboost
3-5
San Francisco Giants (away) +104 / -333
+116
+105
-1c
ml_logit_blended
3-5
San Francisco Giants (away) +104 / -333
-117
-100
+4c
ml_logit_all_l30d
5-3
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) -115 / +256
+127
-114
-1c
Totals Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.
F ATL 8 MIA 4 F5 ATL 3 MIA 4
04:11 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
F BAL 1 TB 4 F5 BAL 1 TB 1
06:41 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.45
7.5
OVER +0.95
totals_xgb
8.30
7.5
OVER +0.80
totals_ridge
8.84
7.5
OVER +1.34
F CIN 4 PHI 1 F5 CIN 2 PHI 1
06:41 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.39
8.5
UNDER -0.11
totals_xgb
8.25
8.5
UNDER -0.25
totals_ridge
9.14
8.5
OVER +0.64
F CLE 4 DET 3 F5 CLE 3 DET 3
06:41 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.42
8.0
OVER +1.42
totals_xgb
9.50
8.0
OVER +1.50
totals_ridge
8.91
8.0
OVER +0.91
F NYM 6 WSH 9 F5 NYM 5 WSH 9
06:46 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
F TOR 4 NYY 5 F5 TOR 3 NYY 5
07:06 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.71
9.0
UNDER -0.29
totals_xgb
11.38
9.0
OVER +2.38
totals_ridge
8.90
9.0
UNDER -0.10
F BOS 7 KC 1 F5 BOS 2 KC 1
07:40 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.30
7.5
OVER +0.80
totals_xgb
7.53
7.5
— +0.03
totals_ridge
8.77
7.5
OVER +1.27
F HOU 2 MIN 1 F5 HOU 2 MIN 0
07:41 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.04
8.5
OVER +0.54
totals_xgb
10.15
8.5
OVER +1.65
totals_ridge
9.27
8.5
OVER +0.77
F MIL 5 CHC 2 F5 MIL 3 CHC 0
07:41 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
7.30
7.5
UNDER -0.20
totals_xgb
8.55
7.5
OVER +1.05
totals_ridge
8.82
7.5
OVER +1.32
F PIT 6 STL 9 F5 PIT 4 STL 3
07:46 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.72
8.0
OVER +0.72
totals_xgb
8.72
8.0
OVER +0.72
totals_ridge
8.88
8.0
OVER +0.88
F TEX 10 COL 0 F5 TEX 8 COL 0
08:41 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
10.73
10.0
OVER +0.73
totals_xgb
10.25
10.0
OVER +0.25
totals_ridge
10.50
10.0
OVER +0.50
F OAK 14 LAA 6 F5 OAK 6 LAA 4
09:39 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.07
9.0
OVER +0.07
totals_xgb
8.83
9.0
UNDER -0.17
totals_ridge
9.12
9.0
OVER +0.12
F CWS 2 SEA 1 F5 CWS 0 SEA 1
09:41 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
F LAD 5 SD 4 F5 LAD 3 SD 4
09:41 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.34
8.5
UNDER -0.16
totals_xgb
8.13
8.5
UNDER -0.37
totals_ridge
8.56
8.5
OVER +0.06
F SF 3 ARI 5 F5 SF 3 ARI 1
09:41 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.49
8.5
OVER +0.99
totals_xgb
9.94
8.5
OVER +1.44
totals_ridge
9.52
8.5
OVER +1.02
CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d) Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.
Model n CLV (cents) ±SEM ml_logit_baseline 289 -0.22 ±0.13 ml_lgbm 289 +0.02 ±0.13 ml_xgb 162 -0.21 ±0.15 ml_catboost 162 -0.23 ±0.15 ml_logit_blended 210 -0.24 ±0.13 ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_aug_v1 109 +0.09 ±0.26 ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_v1 88 -0.32 ±0.19 ml_lgbm_walkforward_v1 88 -0.13 ±0.19 ml_logit_all_l30d 28 -0.22 ±0.45 ml_lr3 134 -0.26 ±0.22
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days.
Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present).
Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal).
Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip).
Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current.
10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228).
This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.