ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

TodayTomorrow
Last updated 2:17 PM ET · May 25 · auto-refreshes hourly 9:30 AM – 6:30 PM ET
Pick date:Gotodaytomorrow
Date: 2026-05-18 · 14 games · primary model marked with *
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
06:41 PM ET
Baltimore Orioles (away) · Trevor Rogers · Open +125 / Curr +124 (Pinnacle)
Tampa Bay Rays (home) · Shane McClanahan · Open -139 / Curr -135 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Shane McClanahan (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 16-6 Tampa Bay Rays (home) -139 / -135 -135 -150 +11c
ml_logit_all_l30d 6-16 Baltimore Orioles (away) +125 / +124 +112 -102 +27c
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
06:41 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds (away) · Nick Lodolo · Open +108 / Curr +146 (Pinnacle)
Philadelphia Phillies (home) · Andrew Painter · Open -120 / Curr -172 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Andrew Painter (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 4-5 Cincinnati Reds (away) +108 / +146 -122 -200 +108c
ml_logit_all_l30d 4-5 Cincinnati Reds (away) +108 / +146 -112 -102 +10c
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
06:41 PM ET
Atlanta Braves (away) · JR Ritchie velo -1.02 · Open -103 / Curr +142 (Pinnacle)
Miami Marlins (home) · Max Meyer · Open -108 / Curr -175 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — JR Ritchie (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 12-0 Miami Marlins (home) -108 / -175 -131 -150 +42c
ml_logit_all_l30d 12-0 Miami Marlins (home) -108 / -175 -128 -129 +22c
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
06:41 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians (away) · Slade Cecconi · Open +126 / Curr +227 (Pinnacle)
Detroit Tigers (home) · Framber Valdez · Open -139 / Curr -286 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 8-2 Cleveland Guardians (away) +126 / +227 +133 +108 +18c
ml_lgbm 8-2 Cleveland Guardians (away) +126 / +227 -104 -101 +27c
ml_xgb 8-2 Cleveland Guardians (away) +126 / +227 +111 +112 +14c
ml_catboost 8-2 Cleveland Guardians (away) +126 / +227 +150 +109 +17c
ml_logit_blended 2-8 Detroit Tigers (home) -139 / -286 -121 -138 0c
ml_logit_all_l30d 8-2 Cleveland Guardians (away) +126 / +227 +126 +129 -3c
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
06:46 PM ET
New York Mets (away) · Christian Scott · Open -139 / Curr +280 (Pinnacle)
Washington Nationals (home) · Jake Irvin · Open +124 / Curr -370 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Christian Scott (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 7-16 Washington Nationals (home) +124 / -370 -154 -150 +74c
ml_logit_all_l30d 7-16 Washington Nationals (home) +124 / -370 -157 -129 +53c
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
07:06 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays (away) · Patrick Corbin · Open +173 / Curr +254 (Pinnacle)
New York Yankees (home) · Ryan Weathers · Open -192 / Curr -323 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 6-7 Toronto Blue Jays (away) +173 / +254 +115 +108 +65c
ml_lgbm 6-7 Toronto Blue Jays (away) +173 / +254 +200 +156 +17c
ml_xgb 6-7 Toronto Blue Jays (away) +173 / +254 +158 +112 +61c
ml_catboost 6-7 Toronto Blue Jays (away) +173 / +254 +190 +109 +64c
ml_logit_blended 6-7 Toronto Blue Jays (away) +173 / +254 +187 +150 +23c
ml_logit_all_l30d 6-7 Toronto Blue Jays (away) +173 / +254 +164 +129 +44c
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
07:11 PM ET
Boston Red Sox (away) · Sonny Gray · Open -108 / Curr +107 (Pinnacle)
Kansas City Royals (home) · Seth Lugo · Open -103 / Curr -130 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-3 Kansas City Royals (home) -103 / -130 +102 -108 +5c
ml_lgbm 1-3 Kansas City Royals (home) -103 / -130 -128 -114 +11c
ml_xgb 1-3 Kansas City Royals (home) -103 / -130 -132 -112 +8c
ml_catboost 1-3 Kansas City Royals (home) -103 / -130 -127 -109 +6c
ml_logit_blended 1-3 Kansas City Royals (home) -103 / -130 -108 -133 +30c
ml_logit_all_l30d 1-3 Kansas City Royals (home) -103 / -130 -142 -129 +26c
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
07:40 PM ET
Houston Astros (away) · Tatsuya Imai · Open -101 / Curr +123 (Pinnacle)
Minnesota Twins (home) · Kendry Rojas · Open -109 / Curr -149 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Kendry Rojas (home), Tatsuya Imai (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 6-3 Minnesota Twins (home) -109 / -149 -107 -133 +25c
ml_logit_all_l30d 3-6 Houston Astros (away) -101 / +123 +116 -102 +1c
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
07:41 PM ET
Milwaukee Brewers (away) · Brandon Sproat · Open +139 / Curr +143 (Pinnacle)
Chicago Cubs (home) · Shota Imanaga · Open -154 / Curr -156 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 9-3 Milwaukee Brewers (away) +139 / +143 +139 +108 +31c
ml_lgbm 3-9 Chicago Cubs (home) -154 / -156 -175 -156 +2c
ml_xgb 9-3 Milwaukee Brewers (away) +139 / +143 +132 +112 +27c
ml_catboost 9-3 Milwaukee Brewers (away) +139 / +143 +165 +109 +30c
ml_logit_blended 3-9 Chicago Cubs (home) -154 / -156 -165 -150 -4c
ml_logit_all_l30d 9-3 Milwaukee Brewers (away) +139 / +143 +149 +129 +10c
Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies
08:41 PM ET
Texas Rangers (away) · MacKenzie Gore · Open -147 / Curr +390 (Pinnacle)
Colorado Rockies (home) · Jose Quintana · Open +133 / Curr -526 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 6-7 Texas Rangers (away) -147 / +390 -128 -419 +272c
ml_lgbm 7-6 Colorado Rockies (home) +133 / -526 -112 +101 +32c
ml_xgb 7-6 Colorado Rockies (home) +133 / -526 -117 -112 +45c
ml_catboost 7-6 Colorado Rockies (home) +133 / -526 -106 -100 +33c
ml_logit_blended 6-7 Texas Rangers (away) -147 / +390 -136 — —
ml_logit_all_l30d 7-6 Colorado Rockies (home) +133 / -526 +102 +102 +31c
Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
09:39 PM ET
Athletics (away) · J.T. Ginn · Open -125 / Curr +123 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Angels (home) · Walbert Ureña · Open +114 / Curr -149 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Walbert Ureña (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 1-2 Athletics (away) -125 / +123 -132 — —
ml_logit_all_l30d 2-1 Los Angeles Angels (home) +114 / -149 +136 +102 +12c
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
09:41 PM ET
Chicago White Sox (away) · Noah Schultz · Open +152 / Curr +450 (Pinnacle)
Seattle Mariners (home) · Bryan Woo · Open -169 / Curr -625 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Noah Schultz (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 1-6 Chicago White Sox (away) +152 / +450 +144 +150 +2c
ml_logit_all_l30d 1-6 Chicago White Sox (away) +152 / +450 +134 +129 +23c
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
09:41 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers (away) · Yoshinobu Yamamoto · Open -154 / Curr +209 (Pinnacle)
San Diego Padres (home) · Michael King · Open +138 / Curr -278 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-0 San Diego Padres (home) +138 / -278 +101 -108 +46c
ml_lgbm 1-0 San Diego Padres (home) +138 / -278 +150 +122 +16c
ml_xgb 1-0 San Diego Padres (home) +138 / -278 -102 -112 +50c
ml_catboost 1-0 San Diego Padres (home) +138 / -278 +118 +120 +18c
ml_logit_blended 1-0 San Diego Padres (home) +138 / -278 +114 -133 +71c
ml_logit_all_l30d 1-0 San Diego Padres (home) +138 / -278 -105 +102 +36c
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
09:41 PM ET
San Francisco Giants (away) · Robbie Ray · Open +123 / Curr +122 (Pinnacle)
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) · Zac Gallen · Open -135 / Curr -133 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 2-12 San Francisco Giants (away) +123 / +122 +100 +108 +15c
ml_lgbm 2-12 San Francisco Giants (away) +123 / +122 -104 -101 +24c
ml_xgb 2-12 San Francisco Giants (away) +123 / +122 +125 +112 +11c
ml_catboost 2-12 San Francisco Giants (away) +123 / +122 -103 -120 +43c
ml_logit_blended 12-2 Arizona Diamondbacks (home) -135 / -133 +104 -133 -2c
ml_logit_all_l30d 2-12 San Francisco Giants (away) +123 / +122 -103 -102 +25c

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

FBAL6TB16 F5BAL4TB12 · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
06:41 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FCIN4PHI5 F5CIN2PHI2 · Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
06:41 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FATL0MIA12 F5ATL0MIA12 · Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
06:41 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FCLE8DET2 F5CLE4DET1 · Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
06:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -108 / U -108)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.29 8.5 OVER +0.79
totals_xgb 9.17 8.5 OVER +0.67
totals_ridge 8.72 8.5 OVER +0.22
FNYM16WSH7 F5NYM4WSH3 · New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
06:46 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FTOR6NYY7 F5TOR4NYY3 · Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
07:06 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -103 / U -111)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.97 9.0 — -0.03
totals_xgb 9.57 9.0 OVER +0.57
totals_ridge 8.82 9.0 UNDER -0.18
FBOS3KC1 F5BOS0KC0 · Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
07:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -109 / U -105)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.99 9.0 — -0.01
totals_xgb 9.47 9.0 OVER +0.47
totals_ridge 8.85 9.0 UNDER -0.15
FHOU3MIN6 F5HOU0MIN3 · Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
07:40 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FMIL9CHC3 F5MIL8CHC3 · Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
07:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 10.5 (O -106 / U -106)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.27 10.5 UNDER -2.23
totals_xgb 9.14 10.5 UNDER -1.36
totals_ridge 8.89 10.5 UNDER -1.61
FTEX6COL7 F5TEX2COL6 · Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies
08:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 10.0 (O -104 / U -110)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.95 10.0 UNDER -0.05
totals_xgb 9.71 10.0 UNDER -0.29
totals_ridge 10.52 10.0 OVER +0.52
FOAK1LAA2 F5OAK0LAA0 · Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
09:39 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FCWS1SEA6 F5CWS0SEA2 · Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
09:41 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FLAD0SD1 F5LAD0SD1 · Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
09:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -114 / U -101)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.37 7.5 OVER +0.87
totals_xgb 9.21 7.5 OVER +1.71
totals_ridge 8.54 7.5 OVER +1.04
FSF2ARI12 F5SF2ARI12 · San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
09:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -108 / U -106)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.29 9.0 OVER +0.29
totals_xgb 9.22 9.0 OVER +0.22
totals_ridge 9.45 9.0 OVER +0.45

CLV (Closing Line Value, 30d)

Per-model rolling 30-day mean CLV in cents on the OPENING-line pick side, computed at the Pinnacle CLOSE. Positive = market converged toward our pick. Negative = market moved away. Diagnostic only — calibrated accuracy is the betting north star.

ModelnCLV (cents)±SEM
ml_logit_baseline289-0.22±0.13
ml_lgbm289+0.02±0.13
ml_xgb162-0.21±0.15
ml_catboost162-0.23±0.15
ml_logit_blended210-0.23±0.13
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_aug_v1109+0.09±0.26
ml_lgbm_walkforward_daily_v188-0.32±0.19
ml_lgbm_walkforward_v188-0.13±0.19
ml_logit_all_l30d28-0.27±0.46
ml_lr3134-0.26±0.22
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.