ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

TodayTomorrow
Last updated 11:47 PM ET · May 24 · auto-refreshes hourly 9:30 AM – 6:30 PM ET
Pick date:Gotodaytomorrow
Date: 2026-05-17 · 15 games · primary model marked with *
Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays
12:16 PM ET
Miami Marlins (away) · Eury Pérez · Open +134 / Curr +130 (Pinnacle)
Tampa Bay Rays (home) · Drew Rasmussen · Open -149 / Curr -145 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 3-6 Miami Marlins (away) +134 / +130 +111 +111 +23c
ml_lgbm 3-6 Miami Marlins (away) +134 / +130 -104 +100 +34c
ml_xgb 3-6 Miami Marlins (away) +134 / +130 +121 +138 -4c
ml_catboost 3-6 Miami Marlins (away) +134 / +130 +121 +123 +11c
ml_logit_blended 6-3 Tampa Bay Rays (home) -149 / -145 -130 -167 +17c
ml_logit_all_l30d 6-3 Tampa Bay Rays (home) -149 / -145 -123 -162 +13c
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
01:36 PM ET
Baltimore Orioles (away) · Brandon Young · Open -128 / Curr -123 (Pinnacle)
Washington Nationals (home) · Miles Mikolas · Open +116 / Curr +112 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 3-7 Washington Nationals (home) +116 / +112 -119 -111 +27c
ml_lgbm 3-7 Washington Nationals (home) +116 / +112 -167 -159 +75c
ml_xgb 3-7 Washington Nationals (home) +116 / +112 -148 -138 +54c
ml_catboost 3-7 Washington Nationals (home) +116 / +112 -163 -123 +39c
ml_logit_blended 3-7 Washington Nationals (home) +116 / +112 -165 -400 +316c
ml_logit_all_l30d 3-7 Washington Nationals (home) +116 / +112 -136 -170 +86c
Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
01:36 PM ET
Philadelphia Phillies (away) · Zack Wheeler · Open +123 / Curr +122 (Pinnacle)
Pittsburgh Pirates (home) · Paul Skenes · Open -135 / Curr -135 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 6-0 Philadelphia Phillies (away) +123 / +122 +114 +111 +12c
ml_lgbm 0-6 Pittsburgh Pirates (home) -135 / -135 -175 -159 +24c
ml_xgb 0-6 Pittsburgh Pirates (home) -135 / -135 -162 -138 +2c
ml_catboost 6-0 Philadelphia Phillies (away) +123 / +122 +148 +123 +0c
ml_logit_blended 0-6 Pittsburgh Pirates (home) -135 / -135 -119 -165 +30c
ml_logit_all_l30d 0-6 Pittsburgh Pirates (home) -135 / -135 -150 -170 +35c
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves
01:36 PM ET
Boston Red Sox (away) · Open — / Curr +129 (DraftKings)
Atlanta Braves (home) · Grant Holmes · Open — / Curr -156 (DraftKings)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 8-1 Atlanta Braves (home) — / -156 -145 -400 +244c
ml_logit_all_l30d 8-1 Atlanta Braves (home) — / -156 -162 -170 +14c
New York Yankees @ New York Mets
01:41 PM ET
New York Yankees (away) · Elmer Rodríguez · Open -112 / Curr -109 (Pinnacle)
New York Mets (home) · Freddy Peralta · Open +102 / Curr -102 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 7-6 New York Mets (home) +102 / -102 -150 -112 +14c
ml_lgbm 6-7 New York Yankees (away) -112 / -109 -119 -109 -3c
ml_xgb 7-6 New York Mets (home) +102 / -102 -105 -133 +35c
ml_catboost 7-6 New York Mets (home) +102 / -102 -104 -110 +12c
ml_logit_blended 7-6 New York Mets (home) +102 / -102 -111 -165 +67c
ml_logit_all_l30d 7-6 New York Mets (home) +102 / -102 -110 -111 +13c
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
01:41 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays (away) · Kevin Gausman · Open -128 / Curr -128 (Pinnacle)
Detroit Tigers (home) · Jack Flaherty · Open +116 / Curr +117 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 1-4 Detroit Tigers (home) +116 / +117 -115 -111 +27c
ml_lgbm 1-4 Detroit Tigers (home) +116 / +117 -112 -100 +16c
ml_xgb 1-4 Detroit Tigers (home) +116 / +117 -121 -138 +54c
ml_catboost 1-4 Detroit Tigers (home) +116 / +117 -134 -123 +39c
ml_logit_blended 1-4 Detroit Tigers (home) +116 / +117 -101 -165 +81c
ml_logit_all_l30d 1-4 Detroit Tigers (home) +116 / +117 -130 -169 +85c
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians
01:41 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds (away) · Brady Singer · Open +143 / Curr +143 (Pinnacle)
Cleveland Guardians (home) · Gavin Williams · Open -159 / Curr -159 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 3-10 Cincinnati Reds (away) +143 / +143 +125 +111 +32c
ml_lgbm 10-3 Cleveland Guardians (home) -159 / -159 -1081 -159 +1c
ml_xgb 3-10 Cincinnati Reds (away) +143 / +143 +155 +138 +6c
ml_catboost 3-10 Cincinnati Reds (away) +143 / +143 +173 +123 +20c
ml_logit_blended 10-3 Cleveland Guardians (home) -159 / -159 -163 -400 +241c
ml_logit_all_l30d 10-3 Cleveland Guardians (home) -159 / -159 -150 -170 +11c
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
02:11 PM ET
Milwaukee Brewers (away) · Open — / Curr -120 (DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins (home) · Bailey Ober · Open — / Curr +100 (DraftKings)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 5-4 Minnesota Twins (home) — / +100 -113 -165 +65c
ml_logit_all_l30d 5-4 Minnesota Twins (home) — / +100 -131 -170 +70c
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
02:11 PM ET
Texas Rangers (away) · Nathan Eovaldi · Open — / Curr -120 (DraftKings)
Houston Astros (home) · Peter Lambert · Open — / Curr +100 (DraftKings)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Peter Lambert (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 0-8 Houston Astros (home) — / +100 -117 -165 +65c
ml_logit_all_l30d 0-8 Houston Astros (home) — / +100 -128 -162 +62c
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
02:11 PM ET
Chicago Cubs (away) · Colin Rea · Open -137 / Curr -135 (Pinnacle)
Chicago White Sox (home) · Erick Fedde · Open +124 / Curr +122 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 9-8 Chicago White Sox (home) +124 / +122 -102 -111 +35c
ml_lgbm 9-8 Chicago White Sox (home) +124 / +122 +104 -100 +24c
ml_xgb 9-8 Chicago White Sox (home) +124 / +122 -107 -138 +62c
ml_catboost 9-8 Chicago White Sox (home) +124 / +122 -111 -121 +45c
ml_logit_blended 9-8 Chicago White Sox (home) +124 / +122 -109 -165 +89c
ml_logit_all_l30d 9-8 Chicago White Sox (home) +124 / +122 -126 -162 +87c
Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals
02:16 PM ET
Kansas City Royals (away) · Stephen Kolek · Open -101 / Curr -101 (Pinnacle)
St. Louis Cardinals (home) · Andre Pallante · Open -109 / Curr -109 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 0-2 St. Louis Cardinals (home) -109 / -109 -113 -111 +3c
ml_lgbm 2-0 Kansas City Royals (away) -101 / -101 +112 +100 -1c
ml_xgb 0-2 St. Louis Cardinals (home) -109 / -109 -132 -138 +29c
ml_catboost 0-2 St. Louis Cardinals (home) -109 / -109 -148 -123 +14c
ml_logit_blended 0-2 St. Louis Cardinals (home) -109 / -109 -117 -165 +57c
ml_logit_all_l30d 0-2 St. Louis Cardinals (home) -109 / -109 -123 -162 +54c
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
03:11 PM ET
Arizona Diamondbacks (away) · Michael Soroka velo -1.29 · Open -147 / Curr -147 (Pinnacle)
Colorado Rockies (home) · Michael Lorenzen · Open +132 / Curr +132 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 6-8 Colorado Rockies (home) +132 / +132 +110 +117 +15c
ml_lgbm 6-8 Colorado Rockies (home) +132 / +132 +119 +111 +21c
ml_xgb 6-8 Colorado Rockies (home) +132 / +132 -111 -138 +70c
ml_catboost 6-8 Colorado Rockies (home) +132 / +132 -103 -120 +52c
ml_logit_blended 8-6 Arizona Diamondbacks (away) -147 / -147 -136 — —
ml_logit_all_l30d 6-8 Colorado Rockies (home) +132 / +132 -107 -111 +43c
San Francisco Giants @ Athletics
04:06 PM ET
San Francisco Giants (away) · Adrian Houser · Open +127 / Curr +128 (Pinnacle)
Athletics (home) · Jeffrey Springs · Open -141 / Curr -141 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 10-1 San Francisco Giants (away) +127 / +128 +126 +111 +16c
ml_lgbm 10-1 San Francisco Giants (away) +127 / +128 +101 +100 +27c
ml_xgb 1-10 Athletics (home) -141 / -141 -126 -138 -3c
ml_catboost 10-1 San Francisco Giants (away) +127 / +128 +159 +123 +4c
ml_logit_blended 1-10 Athletics (home) -141 / -141 -147 -400 +259c
ml_logit_all_l30d 1-10 Athletics (home) -141 / -141 -144 -170 +29c
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels
04:08 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers (away) · Roki Sasaki · Open -139 / Curr -139 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Angels (home) · Grayson Rodriguez · Open +125 / Curr +125 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Grayson Rodriguez (home)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended 1-10 Los Angeles Angels (home) +125 / +125 -107 -165 +90c
ml_logit_all_l30d 1-10 Los Angeles Angels (home) +125 / +125 +113 -111 +36c
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
07:21 PM ET
San Diego Padres (away) · Lucas Giolito · Open +138 / Curr +143 (Pinnacle)
Seattle Mariners (home) · George Kirby · Open -154 / Curr -159 (Pinnacle)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * 8-3 San Diego Padres (away) +138 / +143 +136 +111 +27c
ml_lgbm 3-8 Seattle Mariners (home) -154 / -159 — -159 +6c
ml_xgb 8-3 San Diego Padres (away) +138 / +143 +161 +138 +0c
ml_catboost 8-3 San Diego Padres (away) +138 / +143 +182 +123 +15c
ml_logit_blended 3-8 Seattle Mariners (home) -154 / -159 -168 -400 +246c
ml_logit_all_l30d 3-8 Seattle Mariners (home) -154 / -159 -143 -170 +16c

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

FMIA3TB6 F5MIA2TB5 · Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays
12:16 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.0 (O -120 / U +105)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.29 7.0 OVER +1.29
totals_xgb 7.53 7.0 OVER +0.53
totals_ridge 8.76 7.0 OVER +1.76
FBAL7WSH3 F5BAL6WSH2 · Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
01:36 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 10.0 (O -109 / U -105)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 10.02 10.0 — +0.02
totals_xgb 10.65 10.0 OVER +0.65
totals_ridge 9.35 10.0 UNDER -0.65
FPHI6PIT0 F5PHI2PIT0 · Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
01:36 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O +105 / U -120)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 7.64 7.5 OVER +0.14
totals_xgb 7.53 7.5 — +0.03
totals_ridge 8.69 7.5 OVER +1.19
FBOS1ATL8 F5BOS0ATL7 · Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves
01:36 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FNYY6NYM7 F5NYY1NYM1 · New York Yankees @ New York Mets
01:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -114 / U -101)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.80 8.0 OVER +1.80
totals_xgb 10.08 8.0 OVER +2.08
totals_ridge 8.81 8.0 OVER +0.81
FTOR4DET1 F5TOR4DET0 · Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
01:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O +101 / U -116)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.83 8.0 OVER +1.83
totals_xgb 9.76 8.0 OVER +1.76
totals_ridge 8.81 8.0 OVER +0.81
FCIN3CLE10 F5CIN2CLE6 · Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians
01:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -103 / U -111)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 7.98 8.5 UNDER -0.52
totals_xgb 7.66 8.5 UNDER -0.84
totals_ridge 8.38 8.5 UNDER -0.12
FMIL4MIN5 F5MIL3MIN4 · Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
02:11 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FTEX8HOU0 F5TEX2HOU0 · Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
02:11 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FCHC8CWS9 F5CHC4CWS4 · Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
02:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -106 / U -108)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.08 8.5 OVER +0.58
totals_xgb 9.51 8.5 OVER +1.01
totals_ridge 8.59 8.5 OVER +0.09
FKC2STL0 F5KC2STL0 · Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals
02:16 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -115 / U +100)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 9.86 9.0 OVER +0.86
totals_xgb 9.44 9.0 OVER +0.44
totals_ridge 8.95 9.0 — -0.05
FARI8COL6 F5ARI7COL2 · Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
03:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 10.5 (O -112 / U -102)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 10.37 10.5 UNDER -0.13
totals_xgb 11.24 10.5 OVER +0.74
totals_ridge 10.67 10.5 OVER +0.17
FSF10OAK1 F5SF2OAK1 · San Francisco Giants @ Athletics
04:06 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.5 (O -110 / U -105)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.86 9.5 UNDER -0.64
totals_xgb 9.09 9.5 UNDER -0.41
totals_ridge 8.88 9.5 UNDER -0.62
FLAD10LAA1 F5LAD7LAA1 · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels
04:08 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FSD8SEA3 F5SD2SEA0 · San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
07:21 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -108 / U -106)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 7.74 7.5 OVER +0.24
totals_xgb 7.54 7.5 — +0.04
totals_ridge 8.16 7.5 OVER +0.66
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.