ALIBI MLB Today▾
Tomorrow▾
Profiles▾
Models▾
More▾
ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated
Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.
Last updated 11:47 PM ET · May 23 · auto-refreshes hourly 9:30 AM – 6:30 PM ET
Date: 2026-05-16 · 15 games · primary model marked with *
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
01:11 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays (away) · Mason Fluharty · Open +111 / Curr +104 (Pinnacle)
Detroit Tigers (home) · Casey Mize · Open -123 / Curr -127 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
2-1
Toronto Blue Jays (away) +111 / +104
+116
+112
-1c
ml_lgbm
1-2
Detroit Tigers (home) -123 / -127
-134
-131
+7c
ml_xgb
1-2
Detroit Tigers (home) -123 / -127
-150
-167
+43c
ml_catboost
1-2
Detroit Tigers (home) -123 / -127
-153
-129
+6c
ml_logit_blended
1-2
Detroit Tigers (home) -123 / -127
-131
-267
+143c
ml_logit_all_l30d
1-2
Detroit Tigers (home) -123 / -127
-128
-200
+77c
Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals
02:16 PM ET
Kansas City Royals (away) · Noah Cameron · Open +102 / Curr +152 (Pinnacle)
St. Louis Cardinals (home) · Kyle Leahy · Open -112 / Curr -179 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
4-2
St. Louis Cardinals (home) -112 / -179
-111
-112
-1c
ml_lgbm
2-4
Kansas City Royals (away) +102 / +152
+112
-101
+3c
ml_xgb
4-2
St. Louis Cardinals (home) -112 / -179
-114
-133
+21c
ml_catboost
4-2
St. Louis Cardinals (home) -112 / -179
-134
-129
+17c
ml_logit_blended
4-2
St. Louis Cardinals (home) -112 / -179
-125
-267
+154c
ml_logit_all_l30d
4-2
St. Louis Cardinals (home) -112 / -179
-122
-150
+38c
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
03:11 PM ET
Arizona Diamondbacks (away) · Eduardo Rodriguez · Open -139 / Curr +122 (Pinnacle)
Colorado Rockies (home) · Tomoyuki Sugano · Open +125 / Curr -147 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
2-4
Arizona Diamondbacks (away) -139 / +122
-114
-156
+17c
ml_lgbm
4-2
Colorado Rockies (home) +125 / -147
-112
+101
+24c
ml_xgb
4-2
Colorado Rockies (home) +125 / -147
-127
-133
+58c
ml_catboost
4-2
Colorado Rockies (home) +125 / -147
-126
-129
+54c
ml_logit_blended
4-2
Colorado Rockies (home) +125 / -147
-107
-156
+81c
ml_logit_all_l30d
4-2
Colorado Rockies (home) +125 / -147
-107
-112
+37c
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
04:06 PM ET
Baltimore Orioles (away) · Chris Bassitt · Open -105 / Curr -101 (Pinnacle)
Washington Nationals (home) · Cade Cavalli · Open -105 / Curr -108 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
3-13
Baltimore Orioles (away) -105 / -101
-109
-156
+50c
ml_lgbm
13-3
Washington Nationals (home) -105 / -108
-175
-161
+56c
ml_xgb
13-3
Washington Nationals (home) -105 / -108
-126
-133
+28c
ml_catboost
13-3
Washington Nationals (home) -105 / -108
-147
-129
+24c
ml_logit_blended
13-3
Washington Nationals (home) -105 / -108
-153
-400
+295c
ml_logit_all_l30d
13-3
Washington Nationals (home) -105 / -108
-140
-214
+109c
Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
04:06 PM ET
Philadelphia Phillies (away) · Cristopher Sánchez · Open -167 / Curr -161 (Pinnacle)
Pittsburgh Pirates (home) · Bubba Chandler · Open +149 / Curr +149 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
0-6
Pittsburgh Pirates (home) +149 / +149
+100
-112
+61c
ml_lgbm
0-6
Pittsburgh Pirates (home) +149 / +149
+119
+109
+40c
ml_xgb
0-6
Pittsburgh Pirates (home) +149 / +149
-110
-133
+82c
ml_catboost
0-6
Pittsburgh Pirates (home) +149 / +149
-115
-129
+78c
ml_logit_blended
0-6
Pittsburgh Pirates (home) +149 / +149
+116
-123
+72c
ml_logit_all_l30d
0-6
Pittsburgh Pirates (home) +149 / +149
-114
-112
+61c
Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays
04:11 PM ET
Miami Marlins (away) · Sandy Alcantara · Open +121 / Curr -101 (Pinnacle)
Tampa Bay Rays (home) · Nick Martinez · Open -133 / Curr -120 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
10-5
Miami Marlins (away) +121 / -101
+111
+112
+9c
ml_lgbm
10-5
Miami Marlins (away) +121 / -101
+112
-101
+22c
ml_xgb
5-10
Tampa Bay Rays (home) -133 / -120
-141
-167
+33c
ml_catboost
5-10
Tampa Bay Rays (home) -133 / -120
-174
-129
-4c
ml_logit_blended
5-10
Tampa Bay Rays (home) -133 / -120
-131
-267
+133c
ml_logit_all_l30d
5-10
Tampa Bay Rays (home) -133 / -120
-138
-214
+81c
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians
06:11 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds (away) · Chris Paddack · Open +157 / Curr +176 (Pinnacle)
Cleveland Guardians (home) · Joey Cantillo · Open -175 / Curr -217 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
4-7
Cincinnati Reds (away) +157 / +176
+147
+112
+45c
ml_lgbm
4-7
Cincinnati Reds (away) +157 / +176
+134
+131
+26c
ml_xgb
4-7
Cincinnati Reds (away) +157 / +176
+126
+133
+24c
ml_catboost
4-7
Cincinnati Reds (away) +157 / +176
+149
+129
+28c
ml_logit_blended
7-4
Cleveland Guardians (home) -175 / -217
-129
-267
+91c
ml_logit_all_l30d
4-7
Cincinnati Reds (away) +157 / +176
+120
+150
+7c
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
07:11 PM ET
Milwaukee Brewers (away) · Logan Henderson · Open -123 / Curr -833 (Pinnacle)
Minnesota Twins (home) · Connor Prielipp · Open +111 / Curr +561 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Connor Prielipp (home)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_lgbm
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_xgb
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_catboost
—
—
— / —
—
—
—
ml_logit_blended
2-1
Milwaukee Brewers (away) -123 / -833
-128
—
—
ml_logit_all_l30d
1-2
Minnesota Twins (home) +111 / +561
+104
-112
+23c
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
07:11 PM ET
Texas Rangers (away) · Jacob deGrom · Open -139 / Curr +288 (Pinnacle)
Houston Astros (home) · Kai-Wei Teng · Open +126 / Curr -370 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
4-1
Houston Astros (home) +126 / -370
-104
-112
+38c
ml_lgbm
4-1
Houston Astros (home) +126 / -370
+140
+127
-1c
ml_xgb
4-1
Houston Astros (home) +126 / -370
-111
-133
+59c
ml_catboost
4-1
Houston Astros (home) +126 / -370
+108
-110
+36c
ml_logit_blended
4-1
Houston Astros (home) +126 / -370
+115
-156
+82c
ml_logit_all_l30d
4-1
Houston Astros (home) +126 / -370
+112
-112
+38c
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
07:11 PM ET
Chicago Cubs (away) · Jameson Taillon · Open -106 / Curr +432 (Pinnacle)
Chicago White Sox (home) · Davis Martin · Open -104 / Curr -625 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
8-3
Chicago White Sox (home) -104 / -625
-114
-112
+8c
ml_lgbm
8-3
Chicago White Sox (home) -104 / -625
-175
-161
+57c
ml_xgb
8-3
Chicago White Sox (home) -104 / -625
-135
-160
+56c
ml_catboost
8-3
Chicago White Sox (home) -104 / -625
-149
-129
+25c
ml_logit_blended
8-3
Chicago White Sox (home) -104 / -625
-151
-400
+296c
ml_logit_all_l30d
8-3
Chicago White Sox (home) -104 / -625
-148
-214
+110c
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
07:16 PM ET
San Diego Padres (away) · Walker Buehler · Open +144 / Curr -1000 (Pinnacle)
Seattle Mariners (home) · Logan Gilbert · Open -161 / Curr +627 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
7-4
San Diego Padres (away) +144 / -1000
+176
+129
+15c
ml_lgbm
4-7
Seattle Mariners (home) -161 / +627
—
—
—
ml_xgb
4-7
Seattle Mariners (home) -161 / +627
-166
-167
+5c
ml_catboost
4-7
Seattle Mariners (home) -161 / +627
-216
-613
+451c
ml_logit_blended
4-7
Seattle Mariners (home) -161 / +627
-234
—
—
ml_logit_all_l30d
4-7
Seattle Mariners (home) -161 / +627
-159
-214
+53c
New York Yankees @ New York Mets
07:16 PM ET
New York Yankees (away) · Carlos Rodón · Open -128 / Curr +707 (Pinnacle)
New York Mets (home) · Huascar Brazobán · Open +117 / Curr -1000 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
3-6
New York Yankees (away) -128 / +707
-109
-156
+27c
ml_lgbm
3-6
New York Yankees (away) -128 / +707
—
-400
+272c
ml_xgb
6-3
New York Mets (home) +117 / -1000
+112
-133
+50c
ml_catboost
3-6
New York Yankees (away) -128 / +707
-182
—
—
ml_logit_blended
3-6
New York Yankees (away) -128 / +707
-123
-562
+434c
ml_logit_all_l30d
3-6
New York Yankees (away) -128 / +707
-202
—
—
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves
07:16 PM ET
Boston Red Sox (away) · Payton Tolle · Open +128 / Curr -667 (Pinnacle)
Atlanta Braves (home) · Bryce Elder · Open -143 / Curr +461 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
3-2
Boston Red Sox (away) +128 / -667
+119
+112
+16c
ml_lgbm
2-3
Atlanta Braves (home) -143 / +461
-200
-186
+43c
ml_xgb
2-3
Atlanta Braves (home) -143 / +461
-150
-167
+24c
ml_catboost
3-2
Boston Red Sox (away) +128 / -667
+160
+129
-1c
ml_logit_blended
2-3
Atlanta Braves (home) -143 / +461
-127
-267
+124c
ml_logit_all_l30d
2-3
Atlanta Braves (home) -143 / +461
-147
-214
+71c
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels
09:39 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers (away) · Justin Wrobleski · Open -133 / Curr -1000 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Angels (home) · José Soriano · Open +121 / Curr +653 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
2-15
Los Angeles Angels (home) +121 / +653
-108
-112
+33c
ml_lgbm
2-15
Los Angeles Angels (home) +121 / +653
+104
+101
+20c
ml_xgb
2-15
Los Angeles Angels (home) +121 / +653
-117
-133
+54c
ml_catboost
2-15
Los Angeles Angels (home) +121 / +653
-104
-110
+31c
ml_logit_blended
2-15
Los Angeles Angels (home) +121 / +653
-111
-158
+79c
ml_logit_all_l30d
2-15
Los Angeles Angels (home) +121 / +653
-112
-112
+33c
San Francisco Giants @ Athletics
09:41 PM ET
San Francisco Giants (away) · Trevor McDonald · Open +115 / Curr -333 (Pinnacle)
Athletics (home) · Luis Severino · Open -127 / Curr +274 (Pinnacle)
Model Score Pick Open / Current Fair (raw) Fair (calibrated) Edge
ml_logit_baseline *
6-4
San Francisco Giants (away) +115 / -333
+115
+112
+3c
ml_lgbm
4-6
Athletics (home) -127 / +274
-134
-131
+4c
ml_xgb
4-6
Athletics (home) -127 / +274
-130
-133
+7c
ml_catboost
4-6
Athletics (home) -127 / +274
-149
-129
+3c
ml_logit_blended
4-6
Athletics (home) -127 / +274
-138
-267
+140c
ml_logit_all_l30d
4-6
Athletics (home) -127 / +274
-136
-214
+88c
Totals Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.
F TOR 2 DET 1 F5 TOR 0 DET 0
01:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.97
8.5
OVER +0.47
totals_xgb
10.23
8.5
OVER +1.73
totals_ridge
8.98
8.5
OVER +0.48
F KC 2 STL 4 F5 KC 1 STL 3
02:16 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.62
9.0
OVER +0.62
totals_xgb
10.09
9.0
OVER +1.09
totals_ridge
8.90
9.0
UNDER -0.10
F ARI 2 COL 4 F5 ARI 2 COL 3
03:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
10.66
11.5
UNDER -0.84
totals_xgb
12.92
11.5
OVER +1.42
totals_ridge
10.60
11.5
UNDER -0.90
F BAL 3 WSH 13 F5 BAL 0 WSH 4
04:06 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.49
10.0
UNDER -0.51
totals_xgb
10.70
10.0
OVER +0.70
totals_ridge
9.29
10.0
UNDER -0.71
F PHI 6 PIT 0 F5 PHI 5 PIT 0
04:06 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
7.90
8.0
UNDER -0.10
totals_xgb
7.57
8.0
UNDER -0.43
totals_ridge
8.69
8.0
OVER +0.69
F MIA 10 TB 5 F5 MIA 0 TB 1
04:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.08
7.5
OVER +1.58
totals_xgb
9.16
7.5
OVER +1.66
totals_ridge
8.70
7.5
OVER +1.20
F CIN 4 CLE 7 F5 CIN 4 CLE 2
06:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.40
8.0
OVER +1.40
totals_xgb
9.18
8.0
OVER +1.18
totals_ridge
8.27
8.0
OVER +0.27
F MIL 2 MIN 1 F5 MIL 1 MIN 1
07:11 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
F TEX 1 HOU 4 F5 TEX 0 HOU 4
07:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.69
7.5
OVER +1.19
totals_xgb
8.91
7.5
OVER +1.41
totals_ridge
8.70
7.5
OVER +1.20
F CHC 3 CWS 8 F5 CHC 0 CWS 7
07:11 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.14
8.5
OVER +0.64
totals_xgb
8.97
8.5
OVER +0.47
totals_ridge
8.59
8.5
OVER +0.09
F SD 7 SEA 4 F5 SD 5 SEA 2
07:16 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
7.88
7.0
OVER +0.88
totals_xgb
8.40
7.0
OVER +1.40
totals_ridge
8.15
7.0
OVER +1.15
F NYY 3 NYM 6 F5 NYY 2 NYM 5
07:16 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.70
8.5
OVER +0.20
totals_xgb
9.07
8.5
OVER +0.57
totals_ridge
8.77
8.5
OVER +0.27
F BOS 3 ATL 2 F5 BOS 1 ATL 2
07:16 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.34
8.0
OVER +0.34
totals_xgb
9.31
8.0
OVER +1.31
totals_ridge
9.16
8.0
OVER +1.16
F LAD 15 LAA 2 F5 LAD 1 LAA 0
09:39 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
9.12
8.5
OVER +0.62
totals_xgb
8.98
8.5
OVER +0.48
totals_ridge
9.18
8.5
OVER +0.68
F SF 6 OAK 4 F5 SF 5 OAK 1
09:41 PM ET
Model Sim μ (runs) Open line Pick Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm
8.35
10.0
UNDER -1.65
totals_xgb
8.38
10.0
UNDER -1.62
totals_ridge
9.10
10.0
UNDER -0.90
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days.
Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present).
Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal).
Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip).
Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current.
10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228).
This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.