ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins

12:16 PM ET

Washington Nationals (away) · Cade Cavalli · Open +120 / Curr +128 (Pinnacle)

Miami Marlins (home) · Sandy Alcantara · Open -132 / Curr -156 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies

01:36 PM ET

Colorado Rockies (away) · Tomoyuki Sugano · Open +244 / Curr +293 (Pinnacle)

Philadelphia Phillies (home) · Cristopher Sánchez · Open -286 / Curr -385 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

01:36 PM ET

Tampa Bay Rays (away) · Nick Martinez · Open +113 / Curr -118 (Pinnacle)

Boston Red Sox (home) · Payton Tolle · Open -125 / Curr -103 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles

01:36 PM ET

Athletics (away) · Luis Severino · Open -103 / Curr +392 (Pinnacle)

Baltimore Orioles (home) · Keegan Akin · Open -108 / Curr -500 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays

01:38 PM ET

Los Angeles Angels (away) · José Soriano · Open -115 / Curr -105 (Pinnacle)

Toronto Blue Jays (home) · Spencer Miles · Open +105 / Curr -105 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Spencer Miles (home)

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds

01:40 PM ET

Houston Astros (away) · Kai-Wei Teng · Open +113 / Curr +107 (Pinnacle)

Cincinnati Reds (home) · Andrew Abbott · Open -123 / Curr -128 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

01:41 PM ET

Minnesota Twins (away) · Andrew Morris · Open +138 / Curr -526 (Pinnacle)

Cleveland Guardians (home) · Gavin Williams · Open -154 / Curr +390 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Andrew Morris (away)

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers

02:11 PM ET

New York Yankees (away) · Carlos Rodón · Open -119 / Curr +215 (Pinnacle)

Milwaukee Brewers (home) · Logan Henderson · Open +108 / Curr -270 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox

02:11 PM ET

Seattle Mariners (away) · Logan Gilbert · Open -122 / Curr -303 (Pinnacle)

Chicago White Sox (home) · Davis Martin · Open +110 / Curr +236 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers

02:36 PM ET

Chicago Cubs (away) · Jameson Taillon · Open +113 / Curr +217 (Pinnacle)

Texas Rangers (home) · Jacob deGrom · Open -123 / Curr -270 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants

04:06 PM ET

Pittsburgh Pirates (away) · Bubba Chandler · Open +106 / Curr +147 (Pinnacle)

San Francisco Giants (home) · Tyler Mahle · Open -118 / Curr -189 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

04:11 PM ET

St. Louis Cardinals (away) · Kyle Leahy · Open +115 / Curr +277 (Pinnacle)

San Diego Padres (home) · Walker Buehler · Open -127 / Curr -385 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers

04:11 PM ET

Atlanta Braves (away) · Bryce Elder · Open +109 / Curr +125 (Pinnacle)

Los Angeles Dodgers (home) · Justin Wrobleski · Open -120 / Curr -135 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks

04:11 PM ET

New York Mets (away) · Huascar Brazobán · Open -103 / Curr +102 (Pinnacle)

Arizona Diamondbacks (home) · Eduardo Rodriguez · Open -108 / Curr -110 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

07:21 PM ET

Detroit Tigers (away) · Brenan Hanifee · Open +114 / Curr -303 (Pinnacle)

Kansas City Royals (home) · Noah Cameron · Open -127 / Curr +247 (Pinnacle)

⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available

Model	Score	Pick	Open / Current	Fair (raw)	Fair (calibrated)	Edge
ml_logit_baseline *	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_lgbm	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_xgb	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_catboost	—	—	— / —	—	—	—
ml_logit_blended	—	—	— / —	—	—	—

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

FWSH2MIA5 F5WSH2MIA2 · Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins

12:16 PM ET

Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -103 / U -111)

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	9.28	8.5	OVER	+0.78
totals_xgb	9.59	8.5	OVER	+1.09
totals_ridge	9.09	8.5	OVER	+0.59

FCOL0PHI6 F5COL0PHI5 · Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies

01:36 PM ET

Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -104 / U -110)

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	9.18	8.5	OVER	+0.68
totals_xgb	9.41	8.5	OVER	+0.91
totals_ridge	8.94	8.5	OVER	+0.44

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	9.15	8.5	OVER	+0.65
totals_xgb	10.02	8.5	OVER	+1.52
totals_ridge	9.29	8.5	OVER	+0.79

FOAK1BAL2 F5OAK1BAL1 · Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles

01:36 PM ET

Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.5 (O -114 / U +100)

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	10.12	9.5	OVER	+0.62
totals_xgb	9.20	9.5	UNDER	-0.30
totals_ridge	8.83	9.5	UNDER	-0.67

FHOU0CIN5 F5HOU0CIN4 · Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds

01:40 PM ET

Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O +103 / U -118)

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	9.14	9.0	OVER	+0.14
totals_xgb	8.47	9.0	UNDER	-0.53
totals_ridge	9.33	9.0	OVER	+0.33

FNYY3MIL4 F5NYY2MIL3 · New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers

02:11 PM ET

Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -110 / U -104)

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	8.19	8.0	OVER	+0.19
totals_xgb	8.95	8.0	OVER	+0.95
totals_ridge	8.62	8.0	OVER	+0.62

FSEA1CWS2 F5SEA1CWS0 · Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox

02:11 PM ET

Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O +101 / U -116)

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	8.03	8.5	UNDER	-0.47
totals_xgb	7.23	8.5	UNDER	-1.27
totals_ridge	8.60	8.5	OVER	+0.10

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	8.74	8.0	OVER	+0.74
totals_xgb	7.79	8.0	UNDER	-0.21
totals_ridge	8.65	8.0	OVER	+0.65

FPIT6SF7 F5PIT3SF2 · Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants

04:06 PM ET

Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -112 / U -102)

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	8.40	8.0	OVER	+0.40
totals_xgb	9.13	8.0	OVER	+1.13
totals_ridge	8.51	8.0	OVER	+0.51

FSTL2SD3 F5STL2SD0 · St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

04:11 PM ET

Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O +101 / U -115)

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	9.03	8.5	OVER	+0.53
totals_xgb	9.05	8.5	OVER	+0.55
totals_ridge	8.50	8.5	—	-0.00

FATL7LAD2 F5ATL4LAD0 · Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers

04:11 PM ET

Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -105 / U -109)

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	9.38	8.5	OVER	+0.88
totals_xgb	8.58	8.5	OVER	+0.08
totals_ridge	9.14	8.5	OVER	+0.64

FNYM1ARI5 F5NYM0ARI2 · New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks

04:11 PM ET

Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -114 / U -101)

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	10.44	8.5	OVER	+1.94
totals_xgb	10.15	8.5	OVER	+1.65
totals_ridge	9.56	8.5	OVER	+1.06

FDET6KC3 F5DET3KC3 · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

07:21 PM ET

Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O +100 / U -115)

Model	Sim μ (runs)	Open line	Pick	Edge (runs)
totals_lgbm	9.07	8.5	OVER	+0.57
totals_xgb	8.79	8.5	OVER	+0.29
totals_ridge	8.85	8.5	OVER	+0.35

All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.