ALIBI MLB · Side-Model Calibrated

Per-game per-model pick (American odds) + per-side edge vs opening line. Side model — not the live betting strategy.

TodayTomorrow
Last updated 11:42 PM ET · May 23 · auto-refreshes hourly 9:30 AM – 6:30 PM ET
Pick date:Gotodaytomorrow
Date: 2026-05-08 · 15 games · primary model marked with *
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
06:11 PM ET
Houston Astros (away) · Mike Burrows · Open +121 / Curr +113 (Pinnacle)
Cincinnati Reds (home) · Nick Lodolo · Open -133 / Curr -123 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
06:41 PM ET
Colorado Rockies (away) · Chase Dollander · Open +181 / Curr +193 (Pinnacle)
Philadelphia Phillies (home) · Jesús Luzardo · Open -204 / Curr -213 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
07:06 PM ET
Athletics (away) · Jacob Lopez · Open +120 / Curr +116 (Pinnacle)
Baltimore Orioles (home) · Kyle Bradish · Open -133 / Curr -141 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
07:08 PM ET
Los Angeles Angels (away) · Reid Detmers · Open +138 / Curr +316 (Pinnacle)
Toronto Blue Jays (home) · Dylan Cease · Open -154 / Curr -417 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
07:11 PM ET
Washington Nationals (away) · Foster Griffin · Open +106 / Curr -123 (Pinnacle)
Miami Marlins (home) · Robby Snelling · Open -118 / Curr +102 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Robby Snelling (home), Foster Griffin (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
07:11 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays (away) · Jesse Scholtens · Open +123 / Curr +147 (Pinnacle)
Boston Red Sox (home) · Connelly Early · Open -135 / Curr -179 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
07:16 PM ET
Minnesota Twins (away) · Connor Prielipp · Open +123 / Curr +131 (Pinnacle)
Cleveland Guardians (home) · Parker Messick · Open -135 / Curr -143 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: rookie pitcher — Connor Prielipp (away)
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
07:41 PM ET
New York Yankees (away) · Max Fried · Open -137 / Curr +112 (Pinnacle)
Milwaukee Brewers (home) · Jacob Misiorowski · Open +124 / Curr -130 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
07:41 PM ET
Detroit Tigers (away) · Keider Montero · Open +125 / Curr -111 (Pinnacle)
Kansas City Royals (home) · Kris Bubic · Open -139 / Curr -105 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
07:41 PM ET
Seattle Mariners (away) · Emerson Hancock · Open -137 / Curr -118 (Pinnacle)
Chicago White Sox (home) · Sean Burke · Open +124 / Curr -103 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers
08:06 PM ET
Chicago Cubs (away) · Ben Brown · Open -133 / Curr -122 (Pinnacle)
Texas Rangers (home) · Kumar Rocker · Open +122 / Curr +113 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
09:41 PM ET
New York Mets (away) · Nolan McLean · Open -135 / Curr -1000 (Pinnacle)
Arizona Diamondbacks (home) · Ryne Nelson · Open +122 / Curr +583 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
09:46 PM ET
St. Louis Cardinals (away) · Michael McGreevy · Open +133 / Curr -149 (Pinnacle)
San Diego Padres (home) · Griffin Canning · Open -147 / Curr +123 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
10:11 PM ET
Atlanta Braves (away) · Chris Sale · Open +105 / Curr +371 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Dodgers (home) · Emmet Sheehan · Open -116 / Curr -500 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
10:16 PM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates (away) · Carmen Mlodzinski · Open -103 / Curr +267 (Pinnacle)
San Francisco Giants (home) · Robbie Ray · Open -105 / Curr -333 (Pinnacle)
⚠ Baseline skipped: no prediction available
ModelScorePickOpen / CurrentFair (raw)Fair (calibrated)Edge
ml_logit_baseline * — — — / — — — —
ml_lgbm — — — / — — — —
ml_xgb — — — / — — — —
ml_catboost — — — / — — — —
ml_logit_blended — — — / — — — —

Totals

Per-game totals models with Pinnacle open line + OVER/UNDER pick + edge in runs.

FHOU10CIN0 F5HOU2CIN0 · Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
06:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.0 (O -116 / U +101)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.16 9.0 UNDER -0.84
totals_xgb 13.65 9.0 OVER +4.65
totals_ridge 9.14 9.0 OVER +0.14
FCOL9PHI7 F5COL6PHI0 · Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
06:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -102 / U -112)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.22 7.5 OVER +0.72
totals_xgb 10.55 7.5 OVER +3.05
totals_ridge 9.05 7.5 OVER +1.55
FOAK4BAL3 F5OAK3BAL1 · Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
07:06 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 9.5 (O +103 / U -118)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.70 9.5 UNDER -0.80
totals_xgb 12.81 9.5 OVER +3.31
totals_ridge 8.90 9.5 UNDER -0.60
FLAA0TOR2 F5LAA0TOR2 · Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
07:08 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -109 / U -105)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.10 7.5 OVER +0.60
totals_xgb 11.03 7.5 OVER +3.53
totals_ridge 8.95 7.5 OVER +1.45
FWSH3MIA2 F5WSH3MIA2 · Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
07:11 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FTB0BOS2 F5TB0BOS2 · Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
07:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -106 / U -108)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.45 8.5 UNDER -0.05
totals_xgb 10.91 8.5 OVER +2.41
totals_ridge 9.56 8.5 OVER +1.06
FMIN4CLE6 F5MIN0CLE4 · Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
07:16 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
FNYY0MIL6 F5NYY0MIL5 · New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
07:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.0 (O -120 / U +104)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 7.70 7.0 OVER +0.70
totals_xgb 10.42 7.0 OVER +3.42
totals_ridge 8.52 7.0 OVER +1.52
FDET3KC4 F5DET1KC1 · Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
07:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -108 / U -108)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.00 8.5 UNDER -0.50
totals_xgb 12.07 8.5 OVER +3.57
totals_ridge 8.81 8.5 OVER +0.31
FSEA12CWS8 F5SEA6CWS5 · Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
07:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -106 / U -108)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.45 8.0 OVER +0.45
totals_xgb 12.22 8.0 OVER +4.22
totals_ridge 8.57 8.0 OVER +0.57
FCHC7TEX1 F5CHC3TEX1 · Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers
08:06 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.5 (O -118 / U +102)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 7.81 8.5 UNDER -0.69
totals_xgb 10.92 8.5 OVER +2.42
totals_ridge 8.75 8.5 OVER +0.25
FNYM3ARI1 F5NYM1ARI1 · New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
09:41 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -115 / U +100)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 7.37 8.0 UNDER -0.63
totals_xgb 9.96 8.0 OVER +1.96
totals_ridge 9.58 8.0 OVER +1.58
FSTL6SD0 F5STL6SD0 · St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
09:46 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 7.5 (O -114 / U -101)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 8.31 7.5 OVER +0.81
totals_xgb 11.82 7.5 OVER +4.32
totals_ridge 8.41 7.5 OVER +0.91
FATL1LAD3 F5ATL1LAD2 · Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
10:11 PM ET
Totals — Pinnacle open: 8.0 (O -111 / U -103)
ModelSim μ (runs)Open linePickEdge (runs)
totals_lgbm 7.51 8.0 UNDER -0.49
totals_xgb 10.22 8.0 OVER +2.22
totals_ridge 9.18 8.0 OVER +1.18
FPIT2SF5 F5PIT1SF2 · Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
10:16 PM ET
No totals data for this game.
All probabilities calibrated via per-model IsotonicRegression fit on completed games in the last 365 days. Models whose calibrator was trained on fewer than 50 samples are suppressed entirely from the page (under-trained — see the "Hidden models" note above, when present). Rows where the calibrator has a flat plateau ±5pp around the raw probability are hidden (out-of-distribution: the isotonic has no training data anchored there, so the calibrated value would be interpolation, not signal). Per-side edge = cents_basis(pinnacle_open) − cents_basis(fair_american_from_calibrated_p), computed on home and away independently (vig affects each side, so we don't sign-flip). Pick = side with the larger edge. "Open / Current" shows Pinnacle's opening American line (source: mart.pinnacle_opens_h2h_locked, verified daily) and the latest live line (source: stg.odds_h2h_paired — Pinnacle preferred, else DraftKings as the early placeholder until Pinnacle opens) on the pick side. Edge math uses the OPEN, not the current. 10c edge = "strong" highlight (mirrors production cents_gap_rule, Dave msg 2228). This page does not factor in cents_gap_rule's full bet-rule logic — it shows raw per-side edge from calibrated probabilities only.