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Totals calibration tracking
Per-model bias on completed games since 2026-03-01 . Bias = mu − actual : positive means the model over-predicts. Pure diagnostic — no model change, no bet decisions here. Builds on v26 §2 slice; surfaces it for all 5 production totals models. Color: |bias|<0.3 , |bias|<1.0 , |bias|≥1.0 , n<10 muted .
Snapshot 10:13 PM ET · May 25, 2026 · manual refresh only ↻ Refresh
totals_xgb n games 170
avg mu 9.27
avg actual 8.11
avg bias (runs) +1.16
By prediction magnitude mu bucket n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) mu < 7 (low) 5 6.83 8.00 -1.17 mu 7-8.5 49 7.93 7.35 +0.58 mu 8.5-10 74 9.20 8.51 +0.68 mu 10+ (high) 42 11.24 8.31 +2.93
By park factor park bucket n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) pitcher park (<0.95) 29 9.08 9.24 -0.16 mild pitcher (0.95-1.0) 61 9.00 7.49 +1.51 mild hitter (1.0-1.05) 57 9.23 8.30 +0.93 hitter park (1.05+) 23 10.30 7.87 +2.43 unknown 0 — — —
By month (drift) month n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) month 05 170 9.27 8.11 +1.16
totals_lgbm n games 437
avg mu 8.68
avg actual 8.67
avg bias (runs) +0.01
By prediction magnitude mu bucket n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) mu < 7 (low) 0 — — — mu 7-8.5 203 8.15 8.26 -0.11 mu 8.5-10 212 9.01 8.88 +0.13 mu 10+ (high) 22 10.44 10.50 -0.06
By park factor park bucket n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) pitcher park (<0.95) 67 8.39 8.58 -0.19 mild pitcher (0.95-1.0) 165 8.51 8.66 -0.15 mild hitter (1.0-1.05) 144 8.74 8.52 +0.22 hitter park (1.05+) 61 9.33 9.16 +0.16 unknown 0 — — —
By month (drift) month n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) month 04 199 8.73 9.19 -0.46 month 05 238 8.64 8.24 +0.40
totals_catboost n games 697
avg mu 8.70
avg actual 8.93
avg bias (runs) -0.22
By prediction magnitude mu bucket n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) mu < 7 (low) 0 — — — mu 7-8.5 271 8.16 8.42 -0.26 mu 8.5-10 409 9.00 9.24 -0.24 mu 10+ (high) 17 10.33 9.47 +0.86
By park factor park bucket n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) pitcher park (<0.95) 117 8.28 8.12 +0.16 mild pitcher (0.95-1.0) 254 8.50 9.05 -0.55 mild hitter (1.0-1.05) 238 8.86 8.91 -0.05 hitter park (1.05+) 88 9.44 9.68 -0.24 unknown 0 — — —
By month (drift) month n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) month 03 75 8.80 8.64 +0.16 month 04 392 8.65 9.11 -0.46 month 05 230 8.76 8.71 +0.05
totals_ridge n games 437
avg mu 9.00
avg actual 8.67
avg bias (runs) +0.32
By prediction magnitude mu bucket n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) mu < 7 (low) 0 — — — mu 7-8.5 29 8.35 7.90 +0.45 mu 8.5-10 389 8.97 8.61 +0.36 mu 10+ (high) 19 10.51 11.05 -0.54
By park factor park bucket n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) pitcher park (<0.95) 67 8.52 8.58 -0.06 mild pitcher (0.95-1.0) 165 8.83 8.66 +0.17 mild hitter (1.0-1.05) 144 9.09 8.52 +0.57 hitter park (1.05+) 61 9.74 9.16 +0.57 unknown 0 — — —
By month (drift) month n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) month 04 199 9.03 9.19 -0.16 month 05 238 8.97 8.24 +0.73
totals_ridge_all_l30d n games 38
avg mu 8.65
avg actual 7.21
avg bias (runs) +1.43
By prediction magnitude mu bucket n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) mu < 7 (low) 0 — — — mu 7-8.5 13 8.27 7.62 +0.65 mu 8.5-10 25 8.84 7.00 +1.84 mu 10+ (high) 0 — — —
By park factor park bucket n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) pitcher park (<0.95) 8 8.37 7.75 +0.62 mild pitcher (0.95-1.0) 15 8.51 8.00 +0.51 mild hitter (1.0-1.05) 11 8.84 5.09 +3.75 hitter park (1.05+) 4 9.16 9.00 +0.16 unknown 0 — — —
By month (drift) month n avg mu avg actual bias (runs) month 05 38 8.65 7.21 +1.43